Occidental (OXY) Up 15.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Occidental Petroleum (OXY). Shares have added about 15.6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Occidental due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Occidental Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Miss, Production Up

Occidental Petroleum Corporation reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings of 31 cents per share, which outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 19 cents by 63.2%. The bottom line dropped 61.3% year over year.

GAAP loss in the reported quarter was 7 cents per share compared with the loss of 30 cents in the year-ago quarter.

Adjusted earnings in 2025 were $2.21 per share, down 36.1% from $3.46 reported in 2024.

Total Revenues of Occidental

Total revenues were $5.42 billion, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.88 billion by 7.8%. The top line also lagged 5.2% year over year due to lower contributions from its Oil & Gas segment.

Total revenues in 2025 were $22.08 billion, down 0.5% from $22.2 billion reported in 2024.

Occidental’s Q4 Segmental Details

Oil and Gas revenues totaled $4.81 billion in the reported quarter, down 14.5% year over year. Midstream & Marketing revenues of $451 million jumped 196.7% year over year.

Production & Sales at Occidental

Total production volume was 1,481 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboe/d). The metric surpassed the company’s guided range of 1,440-1,480 Mboe/d. Total sales volume was 1,480 Mboe/d, up 1.2% from the year-ago period.

Occidental’s Realized Prices

Realized prices of crude oil dropped 15.1% year over year to $59.22 per barrel on a worldwide basis. Realized natural gas liquid prices dropped 23.5% year over year to $16.68 per barrel globally. Natural gas prices decreased 11.1% year over year to $1.12 per thousand cubic feet.

Highlights of Occidental’s Q4 Release

Occidental strengthened its balance sheet with the completion of the OxyChem sale on Jan. 2, 2026, reducing debt by $5.8 billion since mid-December 2025 and bringing principal debt to date to $15 billion.

The company reported strong fourth-quarter production due to robust contributions from Permian assets. Gulf of America’s average daily production volumes in the fourth quarter were 144 Mboe/d, up 5.1% year over year, which also contributed to the overall strong volumes.

Sequential improvement in the Midstream and Marketing segment’s performance was due to higher gas margins from transportation capacity optimization in the Permian, reduced long-haul crude transportation costs and higher sulfur prices at Al Hosn.

Total costs and reduction in the fourth quarter of 2025 were $4.84 billion, down 7.3% from $5.22 billion in the year-ago quarter. Interest and debt expenses decreased 26.6% to $232 million from $316 million in the year-ago quarter, a positive impact of the ongoing debt reduction.

Financial Position of Occidental

As of Dec. 31, 2025, Occidental had cash and cash equivalents of $1.97 billion compared with $2.13 billion as of Dec. 31, 2024.

Occidental had long-term debt (net of current portion) of $20.62 billion as of Dec. 31, 2025 compared with $24.98 billion as of Dec. 31, 2024. The company retired $13.9 billion in debt in the last 20 months, which lowered annual interest expenses by $740 million.

Occidental generated $11.57 billion of operating cash flow in 2025 compared with $11.72 billion in 2024. Total capital expenditure was $6.43 billion in 2025 compared with $6.26 billion in the year-ago period.

Occidental’s Guidance

For the first quarter of 2026, Occidental expects production in the band of 1,385-1,425 Mboe/d. Output from the Permian Resources segment is anticipated at 766-786 Mboe/d. Occidental expects international production volumes for the first quarter of 2026 to be in the range of 229-235 Mboe/d.

Exploration expenses are estimated to be $100 million and interest expenses to be $220 million in the first quarter of 2026.

For 2026, Occidental plans to bring online 460-510 wells in the Permian region and 150-170 wells in the Rockies region. Capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to be in the range of $5.5-$5.9 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in fresh estimates.

The consensus estimate has shifted 121.72% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Occidental has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Interestingly, Occidental has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Occidental is part of the Zacks Oil and Gas - Integrated - United States industry. Over the past month, Antero Midstream Corporation (AM), a stock from the same industry, has gained 9.3%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended December 2025 more than a month ago.

Antero Midstream reported revenues of $297 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +3.3%. EPS of $0.11 for the same period compares with $0.23 a year ago.

Antero Midstream is expected to post earnings of $0.26 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +4%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +1.6%.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Antero Midstream. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of D.

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