Oasis/Tether Market Overview

• ROSEUSDT declined from 0.01769 to 0.01684, with a 24-hour low of 0.01661
• RSI dropped into oversold territory, suggesting potential near-term rebound
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened, with price testing the lower band
• Volume spiked during late-ET bullish reversal but failed to sustain upward momentum
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.01761, followed by a test of 0.0169–0.0170 support

ROSEUSDT opened at 0.01725 on 2025-10-26 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.01784, and closed at 0.01684 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-27. The 24-hour trading volume totaled approximately 30,167,221.4 ROSE, with a notional turnover of $513,588. The price action reflects bearish continuation with key support levels being tested.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour price action formed a bearish continuation pattern, characterized by a late-ET rejection at 0.01761 and a subsequent pullback to 0.0169. A bearish engulfing candle confirmed the breakdown at that level. Price has since found temporary support between 0.0169–0.0170 but has not shown conviction to rebound yet. A doji formed near 0.01703, signaling indecision among traders. Key resistance appears to be at 0.01734 and 0.01756, while key support lies at 0.01694 and 0.01661.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average has crossed below the 50-period MA, indicating short-term bearish momentum. The 50-period MA on daily data remains above the 100- and 200-period MAs, but the gap is narrowing, suggesting weakening dominance. A potential crossover could reinforce bearish bias if the current downtrend continues.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed below the signal line with a bearish histogram, confirming short-term bearish momentum. The RSI has moved into oversold territory (currently ~30), suggesting potential for a near-term bounce. However, the divergence between RSI and price remains bearish as RSI failed to rebound despite a minor price rally. Overbought conditions are unlikely in the near term without a strong reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the bearish breakdown at 0.01761, with Bollinger Bands widening by nearly 15% from earlier levels. Price has tested the lower band multiple times, including a rejection at 0.01684. A sustained close above the upper band would suggest a reacceleration of bearish momentum, but this seems unlikely without a breakout in volume.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged at 0.01761, confirming the breakdown of the key resistance level. However, volume has since declined, with the most recent session seeing reduced buying pressure. Notional turnover reached a peak of $41,175 at 0.01781 but has since contracted to ~$23,000, indicating waning short-term interest. A divergence between volume and price could hint at a potential reversal, but more confirmation is needed.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level sits at 0.01723, which was tested and rejected. The 61.8% level at 0.01705 is now a potential support zone. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement is at 0.01694, and the 61.8% at 0.01661, where price may find a floor for a near-term bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy involves entering a short position when price breaks below the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed just above the most recent swing high. A take-profit is set at the nearest Fibonacci support level. This approach aligns with the bearish momentum seen in the MACD and RSI divergence, and the key breakdown at 0.01761. The strategy could be refined with additional filters, such as volume confirmation or a RSI oversold trigger for a potential long entry should a reversal occur.