NYMEX nat gas Aug, I futures settle at $3.5510/MMBtu

NYMEX nat gas Aug, I futures settle at $3.5510/MMBtu

July 2, 2025

The August natural gas futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) settled at $3.5510 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on Thursday, marking a significant increase from recent lows. This upward movement can be attributed to several factors, including rising gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts for hotter-than-normal weather.

According to a federal storage report, energy firms injected more gas into storage than normal last week, the 11th time in 12 weeks. This report suggests that gas stockpiles are about 6% above the five-year average for this time of year [1]. The increase in storage reflects near-record production and low LNG export feedgas over the past few months.

Output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 106.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), the highest level since June. However, daily output has fallen by around 2.4 bcfd over the past six days, reaching a four-week low of 105.1 bcfd on Wednesday. Despite this decline, the daily output decrease was smaller than previously expected.

Meteorologists forecast weather across the Lower 48 states to remain warmer than normal through at least July 25. This is expected to drive up average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, from 107.3 bcfd this week to 108.8 bcfd next week. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 15.6 bcfd so far in July, with flows on track to reach a 10-week high of 16.0 bcfd on Thursday [2].

The U.S. has become the world's largest LNG supplier, surpassing Australia and Qatar in 2023. This surge in exports is partly due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Natural gas prices at key benchmarks, such as the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM), are trading around $12 per MMBtu and $13 per MMBtu, respectively.

In conclusion, the August natural gas futures contract's settlement at $3.5510/MMBtu reflects a combination of increased production, higher demand due to warmer weather, and robust LNG exports. These factors collectively contribute to a bullish outlook for the natural gas market.

References:
[1] https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas
[2] https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L1N3T70D6:0-us-natgas-prices-climb-2-on-rising-flows-to-lng-export-plants/