NVIDIA's upcoming earnings are critical for US markets, with investors focusing on AI outlook, revenue forecasts, and CEO guidance to gauge tech sector sentiment

NVIDIA's upcoming earnings are critical for US markets, with investors focusing on AI outlook, revenue forecasts, and CEO guidance to gauge tech sector sentiment

NVIDIA’s Q4 Earnings to Test AI Market Confidence Amid High Stakes for Tech Sector

NVIDIA (NVDA) is set to report fiscal Q4 2026 results after the market close on February 25, with investors closely watching for insights into the sustainability of the AI-driven spending boom. Analysts expect the chipmaker to report adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.53 and revenue of $66.2 billion, reflecting a 68% year-over-year increase and an 11th consecutive quarter of growth above 55%. This would align with broader trends, as hyperscalers like Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft collectively plan to spend nearly $700 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026.

The results will scrutinize NVIDIA’s dominance in AI chips, which account for roughly 90% of its revenue. Data center sales are projected to surge 70% to $60.7 billion, driven by demand for high-end GPUs powering large AI models. However, rising memory chip prices and global shortages pose a risk to gross margins, which are expected to hold steady at 75% for Q4. Analysts will assess whether NVIDIA can pass these costs to customers without dampening demand.

Beyond financial metrics, CEO Jensen Huang’s commentary on long-term AI demand and production timelines for next-generation chips like Rubin will shape market sentiment. Recent volatility in tech stocks, including a 4.7% decline in the Magnificent Seven index in 2026, has heightened investor caution about the AI sector’s valuation. While NVIDIA remains the world’s most valuable company with a $4.8 trillion market cap, concerns persist about whether returns on massive AI investments will justify their scale.

The earnings report also highlights NVIDIA’s expanding footprint in India, where it is supplying GPUs for sovereign data centers under the $1 billion IndiaAI Mission. Meanwhile, competition from AMD, cloud providers, and inference-focused startups adds pressure to maintain market leadership.

With options markets pricing in a potential 6% swing in NVIDIA’s stock post-earnings, the results could serve as a barometer for broader tech sector confidence. A strong performance may reinforce optimism about AI’s growth trajectory, while a miss could intensify skepticism amid ongoing market jitters.