Nvidia Surges 3% on H200 Production Ramp and Groq Acquisition: Is This the Start of a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Nvidia (NVDA) surges 3.00% to $192.1, hitting an intraday high of $192.93 amid renewed China demand and strategic acquisitions.
• The stock trades above its 200-day moving average of $160.13, with MACD (1.23) and RSI (53.16) signaling bullish momentum.
• A $20B Groq deal and H200 production expansion to 2M units in 2026 drive optimism, despite regulatory uncertainties.

Nvidia’s 3% intraday rally reflects a confluence of strategic moves and sector tailwinds. The stock’s breakout above key resistance levels, coupled with a $20B acquisition of AI startup Groq and a production surge for H200 chips in China, has reignited investor enthusiasm. With the semiconductors sector in focus due to U.S.-China trade dynamics and AI infrastructure demand, NVDA’s technical and fundamental catalysts position it as a focal point for 2026.

H200 Production Ramp and Groq Acquisition Fuel Short-Term Optimism
Nvidia’s 3% surge is directly tied to two strategic developments: a $20B non-exclusive licensing deal with AI chip startup Groq and a production ramp for H200 chips in China. The Groq acquisition, which includes key personnel and assets, strengthens Nvidia’s inference capabilities, a critical growth area as AI workloads shift toward cost-efficient deployment. Simultaneously, Reuters reports that Nvidia has secured a $27,000-per-chip order for 2M H200 units from Chinese tech firms, prompting a production increase with TSMC starting Q2 2026. These moves signal renewed access to China’s AI market, a key revenue driver, and reinforce Nvidia’s dominance in high-performance computing. The stock’s intraday high of $192.93 reflects market confidence in these near-term catalysts.

Semiconductors Sector Rally: AMD Outperforms as AI Demand Intensifies
The semiconductors sector is rallying on AI-driven demand, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) leading the charge. AMD’s stock surged 5.94% on 2026-01-02, outpacing Nvidia’s 3% gain. This outperformance highlights the sector’s broad-based strength, driven by data center expansion and AI infrastructure spending. While Nvidia’s focus on China and inference markets differentiates it, AMD’s competitive position in CPU and GPU markets for data centers and gaming underscores the sector’s resilience. Investors are rotating into AI-focused plays, with both companies benefiting from the $400B AI chip market’s projected growth through 2030.

Options and ETFs for a Bullish NVDA Play: Leverage the AI Momentum
• MACD: 1.23 (bullish divergence from signal line -0.24)
• RSI: 53.16 (neutral, approaching overbought territory)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $192.1 (above upper band $193.50, indicating strong momentum)
• 200-day MA: $160.13 (price above by 20%)

Nvidia’s technicals suggest a continuation of the bullish trend, with key support at $182.50 (middle Bollinger Band) and resistance at $193.50 (upper Bollinger Band). The 3.47% rise in the Roundhill NVDA WeeklyPay ETF (NVDW) and 5.89% surge in the GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA ETF (NVDL) reflect leveraged exposure to the stock’s momentum. For options, two contracts stand out:

• NVDA20260109C195 (Call, $195 strike, 2026-01-09 expiry):
- IV: 33.44% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 79.81% (high)
- Delta: 0.375 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.586 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.039998 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: $5.2M (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside (ST = $201.21): $6.21 per contract. This call offers high leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a breakout above $195.

• NVDA20260109C200 (Call, $200 strike, 2026-01-09 expiry):
- IV: 32.59% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 193.48% (very high)
- Delta: 0.197 (low sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.351 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.030033 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: $2.8M (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside (ST = $201.21): $1.21 per contract. This contract’s high leverage ratio makes it a speculative play for aggressive bulls, though its low delta requires a sharper price move to profit.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider NVDA20260109C195 into a breakout above $195, while NVDA20260109C200 offers high-risk, high-reward potential if the stock surges past $200.

Backtest Nvidia Stock Performance
The backtest of NVDA's performance following a 3% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows remarkable results. The strategy achieved a 494.21% return, significantly outperforming the benchmark, which gained 42.97%. The excess return was 451.24%, indicating that the strategy's focus on NVDA's intraday movements yielded substantial gains. With a maximum drawdown of 0.00% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.02, the strategy demonstrated robust risk management, maintaining all principal investment during the period.

NVDA’s 3% Rally: A Catalyst-Driven Setup for 2026
Nvidia’s 3% intraday surge is a catalyst-driven event, fueled by the Groq acquisition and H200 production ramp. The stock’s technicals—MACD divergence, RSI neutrality, and a breakout above Bollinger Bands—signal a continuation of the bullish trend. With AMD’s 5.94% gain underscoring the sector’s strength, investors should monitor key levels: $193.50 (resistance) and $182.50 (support). For those seeking leveraged exposure, the GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA ETF (NVDL) and Roundhill NVDA WeeklyPay ETF (NVDW) offer amplified returns. Watch for a close above $193.50 to confirm the breakout and consider NVDA20260109C195 for a high-liquidity, high-leverage play.