Aumento del 3,6 % en Nvidia: luz verde regulatoria y mejoras de los analistas encienden la alarma de fabricante de chips de IA

Summary
• Nvidia (NVDA) surges 3.6% to $180.45, outpacing its 30-day average price change of 0.71%
• Trump administration's H200 chip export approval and Tigress Financial's $350 price target drive momentum
• Bernstein highlights NVDA's 25x forward P/E as historically cheap relative to SOX index

Nvidia's intraday rally reflects a confluence of regulatory optimism, analyst upgrades, and valuation re-rating. With the stock trading near its 52-week low of $86.62 but 13.3% below its October 2025 peak, investors are weighing whether this is a strategic entry point or a short-term bounce. The move follows Oracle's recent earnings-driven sector selloff and comes as the semiconductor sector rallies, led by AMD's 6.75% surge.

Regulatory Greenlight and Analyst Upgrades Fuel Nvidia's Rally
Nvidia's 3.6% intraday gain stems from two pivotal developments: the Trump administration's procedural approval for H200 AI chip exports to China and a wave of analyst upgrades. The administration's multi-agency review, a key step toward fulfilling Jensen Huang's $billions-in-revenue projection, has reignited demand for China-bound AI infrastructure. Simultaneously, Tigress Financial raised its price target to $350, Truist maintained a $275 target, and Bernstein highlighted NVDA's 25x forward P/E as trading in the 11th percentile of its 10-year valuation range. These catalysts counterbalance Oracle's recent earnings-driven sector selloff, which had sparked AI spending sustainability concerns.

Semiconductor Sector Rally Intensifies as AMD Leads Charge
The semiconductor sector is surging, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) leading the charge with a 6.75% intraday gain. This outperformance underscores the sector's resilience amid AI infrastructure optimism. While NVDA's rally is driven by regulatory and valuation factors, AMD's strength reflects broader demand for high-performance computing solutions. The sector's collective momentum suggests investors are positioning for sustained AI-driven growth, despite lingering concerns about capex sustainability.

Leveraged ETFs and Options Playbook: Capitalizing on NVDA's Volatility
• MACD: -3.05 (bearish divergence), Signal Line: -2.33, RSI: 46.18 (oversold)
• Bollinger Bands: $172.12 (lower) to $187.20 (upper), 200D MA: $157.21 (well below current price)
• Support/Resistance: 30D range $180.50–$181.06, 200D range $179.98–$182.24

Nvidia's technicals suggest a short-term bounce from oversold RSI levels, with key resistance at the 30D support band. Leveraged ETFs like NVDG (+7.47%) and NVDU (+7.35%) offer amplified exposure to this volatility. For options, NVDA20251226C180 and NVDA20251226C182.5 stand out:

• NVDA20251226C180
- Call, $180 strike, 2025-12-26 expiry
- IV: 26.24% (moderate), Leverage: 56.10%, Delta: 0.55, Theta: -0.669 (high decay), Gamma: 0.056 (price-sensitive)
- Turnover: $38.1M (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($189.47): $9.47/share
- High leverage and gamma make this ideal for a continuation of the current rally.

• NVDA20251226C182.5
- Call, $182.5 strike, 2025-12-26 expiry
- IV: 25.46% (moderate), Leverage: 91.70%, Delta: 0.41, Theta: -0.535 (high decay), Gamma: 0.057 (price-sensitive)
- Turnover: $9.2M (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($189.47): $6.97/share
- Offers higher leverage with slightly lower delta, balancing risk and reward.

Aggressive bulls should consider NVDA20251226C180 into a break above $181.07 (intraday high).

Backtest Nvidia Stock Performance
The backtest of NVDA's performance after a 4% intraday surge from 2022 to the present shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 55.79%, the 10-Day win rate is 60.34%, and the 30-Day win rate is 65.46%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 15.54%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that NVDA can deliver significant gains following a 4% intraday increase.

NVDA's Rally Gains Legs: Position for a Breakout or Reentry
Nvidia's 3.6% surge reflects a re-rating of its valuation and renewed regulatory optimism. With the stock trading near its 52-week low but supported by Bernstein's historical valuation analysis and analyst upgrades, the move appears sustainable if it breaks above $181.07. The semiconductor sector's strength, led by AMD's 6.75% gain, suggests AI infrastructure demand remains robust. Investors should monitor the 200D MA ($157.21) as a critical support level and consider leveraged ETFs like NVDG for amplified exposure. Watch for a breakout above $182.50 to validate the rally's momentum.