Nvidia aumenta 3.87% mientras se lleva a cabo la revisión de las exportaciones de chips de Trump y las correcciones antimonopolios generan un rally en el sector

Summary
• Nvidia (NVDA) surges 3.87% to $180.89, hitting an intraday high of $180.99
• Trump administration initiates H200 chip export review, with antitrust clearance for Intel investment
• Sector peers like AMD (+5.93%) and Broadcom (+2.5%) rally as AI trade optimism spreads

Nvidia’s sharp intraday rally on 2025-12-19 reflects a confluence of regulatory optimism and sector-wide AI infrastructure momentum. The stock’s 3.87% surge, driven by Trump’s H200 export review and antitrust clearance for its Intel investment, positions it at a critical inflection point. With the broader semiconductor sector rallying, investors are recalibrating risk-reward dynamics amid shifting geopolitical and market dynamics.

Trump's H200 Chip Export Review Sparks Regulatory Optimism
Nvidia’s intraday surge stems from two pivotal developments: the Trump administration’s initiation of a multi-agency review for H200 chip exports to China and the Federal Trade Commission’s clearance of its $5 billion Intel investment. The H200 export review, a procedural step toward fulfilling Trump’s pledge to reopen the Chinese market, signals a potential $25 fee-driven revenue stream for Nvidia. Simultaneously, the antitrust clearance removes a regulatory overhang, while sector-wide optimism—evidenced by AMD’s 5.93% jump and Broadcom’s 2.5% gain—underscores AI infrastructure spending’s resilience despite macroeconomic headwinds.

Semiconductor Sector Rally Driven by AI Export Optimism
The semiconductor sector’s broad-based rally aligns with Nvidia’s move, as AI-driven demand for advanced chips remains robust. AMD’s 5.93% surge and Broadcom’s 2.5% gain highlight the sector’s shared exposure to AI infrastructure growth. While Nvidia’s H200 export review is a catalyst, the sector’s momentum reflects broader confidence in AI’s long-term trajectory, despite lingering concerns over China’s acceptance of U.S. chips and national security risks.

Options and ETFs Highlight Bullish Momentum Amid Volatility
• 200-day average: 157.21 (below current price)
• RSI: 46.18 (neutral)
• MACD: -3.05 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: 172.12–187.20 (current price near upper band)

Nvidia’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish bias amid long-term consolidation. The 200-day average remains a critical support level, while the RSI’s neutrality and MACD’s bearish divergence hint at potential volatility. For leveraged exposure, Direxion Daily NVDA Bull 2X Shares (NVDU) and ProShares Ultra NVDA (NVDB) offer amplified upside, though their 7.79% and 7.07% gains today reflect market enthusiasm.

Top Options:
• NVDA20251226C182.5 (Call, $182.5 strike, 2025-12-26):
- IV: 26.92% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 84.06% (high)
- Delta: 0.419 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.553 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.054 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 7,028,812 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% upside): $189.93 → $7.43/share gain
- Why: High leverage and gamma make this call ideal for a short-term rally, with moderate IV and liquidity ensuring tradability.

• NVDA20251226C185 (Call, $185 strike, 2025-12-26):
- IV: 26.04% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 148.13% (very high)
- Delta: 0.286 (lower sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.407 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.049 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 6,327,700 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% upside): $189.93 → $4.93/share gain
- Why: Extreme leverage amplifies returns in a bullish scenario, though lower delta requires a sharper price move to offset theta decay.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider NVDA20251226C182.5 into a breakout above $182.50, while NVDA20251226C185 offers high-risk, high-reward potential if the rally accelerates.

Backtest Nvidia Stock Performance
The backtest of NVDA's performance after a 4% intraday surge from 2022 to the present shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 55.79%, the 10-Day win rate is 60.34%, and the 30-Day win rate is 65.46%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 15.54%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that NVDA can deliver significant gains following a 4% intraday increase.

Nvidia's Rally Gains Momentum—Position for AI Export Clarity
Nvidia’s 3.87% surge reflects a pivotal shift in regulatory and market sentiment, with the H200 export review and antitrust clearance acting as catalysts. While technicals suggest short-term bullish momentum, the sector’s mixed fundamentals—evidenced by AMD’s 5.93% gain—highlight the need for caution. Investors should monitor the 180.99 intraday high as a key resistance level and the 172.12 Bollinger Band support. Position for AI export clarity and sector synergy, with AMD’s 5.93% surge signaling broader semiconductor optimism.