¿La acción de Nvidia está subvaluada en medio de una feroz competencia por chips de IA en 2026?

The semiconductor industry is at a pivotal inflection point, driven by the explosive growth of artificial intelligence (AI) and the escalating demand for high-performance computing. At the center of this transformation is NVIDIA (NVDA), whose dominance in AI chip development has reshaped global markets. As 2026 approaches, investors are grappling with a critical question: Is Nvidia's stock undervalued despite its fierce competition from rivals like AMD and Intel? To answer this, we must dissect its valuation dynamics, market leadership, and long-term growth potential in the context of a rapidly evolving technological landscape.

Valuation Metrics: A Tale of Growth and Efficiency

Nvidia's financial metrics paint a picture of a company balancing aggressive growth with operational discipline. As of 2025, the stock trades at a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 46.19, a figure that appears elevated at first glance but becomes more compelling when adjusted for growth expectations. The company's PEG ratio of 0.8-which factors in projected earnings growth-suggests that the stock is undervalued relative to its future potential according to financial analysis. This is further reinforced by analysts' 2026 projections, which anticipate a 69.4% year-over-year increase in earnings per share (EPS) to $1.44 in Q4 FY 2026, with full-year 2026 EPS expected to reach $4.42 according to market forecasts.

Nvidia's profitability is equally impressive. Its 70.1% gross margin, 58.8% operating margin, and 53% net margin underscore its ability to convert revenue into profit, a rarity in capital-intensive industries according to financial data. These metrics reflect not only pricing power but also the company's strategic focus on high-margin segments like data center GPUs and AI software ecosystems.

Market Leadership and Competitive Moats

Nvidia's dominance in the AI chip sector is near-unassailable. As of 2025, it commands a 92% market share in data center GPUs, a critical segment for AI training and inference according to industry reports. This leadership is underpinned by its CUDA platform, a proprietary software ecosystem that locks in developers and enterprises, creating high switching costs for competitors according to market analysis. While AMD and Intel are investing heavily in AI hardware, their alternatives-such as AMD's MI300 series or Intel's foundry ambitions-lack the same level of software integration and market adoption according to financial analysis.

AMD, for instance, is gaining traction with its Ryzen CPUs and Radeon GPUs, and its MI450 AI accelerators offer a more affordable alternative to Nvidia's H100 chips. However, AMD's ROCm platform, an open-source competitor to CUDA, has yet to achieve widespread adoption, limiting its ability to replicate Nvidia's ecosystem-driven moat according to market analysis. Intel, meanwhile, is focusing on cost-cutting and foundry expansion but remains a distant third in AI chip innovation according to market analysis.

Long-Term Growth: AI Supercycle and Strategic Expansion

The AI sector is entering a supercycle, with global GPU demand projected to grow at a 20% compound annual rate through 2026 according to market research. Nvidia is uniquely positioned to capitalize on this trend. Its Blackwell and H200 AI chips are already in high demand, with cloud GPU inventory reported to be sold out according to company reports. Additionally, the company's strategic re-entry into the Chinese market-driven by regulatory easing and localized product offerings-could unlock new revenue streams according to market analysis.

Nvidia's forward-looking strategy extends beyond hardware. Its investments in networking hardware, software platforms, and strategic acquisitions (e.g., the acquisition of Arm) are building a diversified ecosystem that reinforces its long-term relevance according to market analysis. This contrasts with AMD and Intel, whose growth trajectories remain more dependent on hardware performance and cost optimization according to market analysis.

Risks and Realities

Despite its strengths, Nvidia faces headwinds. The AI bubble-a hypothetical overvaluation of AI-driven stocks-could lead to market corrections if growth expectations outpace reality according to market analysis. Additionally, regulatory scrutiny in China and the U.S. could disrupt supply chains or limit market access according to market analysis. However, these risks appear manageable given Nvidia's robust balance sheet and R&D spending, which totaled $19.8 billion in FY 2025 according to financial data.

Conclusion: A Compelling Case for Long-Term Investors

Nvidia's valuation metrics, while seemingly rich, are justified by its exceptional growth rates, profitability, and market leadership. The PEG ratio of 0.8 and projected 2026 EPS of $4.42 suggest that the stock is undervalued relative to its future cash flow potential according to financial analysis. In a competitive landscape where AMD and Intel are making strides but lack Nvidia's ecosystem advantages, the company's long-term growth prospects remain robust.

For investors with a multi-year horizon, Nvidia represents a rare combination of technological innovation, operational excellence, and market dominance. While the AI chip race is intensifying, Nvidia's moats-both in hardware and software-position it to outperform peers and deliver sustained value creation.