Nvidia Stock on Track for New High Amid China Deal and Strong Demand Outlook

Nvidia stock is expected to reach a new high, according to top analyst Harsh Kumar of Piper Sandler. The analyst believes a recent deal with the US government to hand over 15% of its China-generated revenue in exchange for export licenses will shift demand patterns in the October quarter. Kumar forecasts a revenue of $45.1 billion for the July quarter and expects China's demand to normalize to a growth pace of 12-15% per quarter. The analyst maintains that Nvidia is in a "demand greater than supply" environment and expects a floodgate of pent-up demand once licenses are issued.

Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock is anticipated to reach a new high, according to top analyst Harsh Kumar of Piper Sandler. The analyst believes a recent deal with the U.S. government to hand over 15% of its China-generated revenue in exchange for export licenses will shift demand patterns in the October quarter [1].

Kumar forecasts a revenue of $45.1 billion for the July quarter and expects China's demand to normalize to a growth pace of 12-15% per quarter. The analyst maintains that Nvidia is in a "demand greater than supply" environment and expects a floodgate of pent-up demand once licenses are issued [1].

The revenue-sharing deal allows Nvidia and AMD to regain access to China's AI chip market while sharing 15% of their revenue with the U.S. government. This arrangement is expected to preserve a major revenue stream for Nvidia while tightening U.S. control over next-gen chip exports [2].

The recent approval will help Nvidia re-enter the market legally and competitively, potentially recovering lost market share in China and boosting its global revenue base [2]. AMD, Nvidia's main rival in the AI chip market, also stands to benefit from the deal, potentially recovering from its recent stock fall and regaining access to a crucial market [2].

Analysts have mixed views on the long-term implications of the deal. While some see it as a net positive, with 85% of revenue still being retained, others caution about potential future revenue cuts if sales to China continue to grow. The arrangement underscores the complex geopolitical dynamics at play in the global chip market [3].

Nvidia's first-quarter earnings report showed resilience, with revenue totaling $44.1 billion, up more than 69% year over year. The company's pivot to U.S. AI infrastructure investments and new chip designs for China signals resilience [1].

Nvidia's AI dominance, 93% data center growth, and automotive partnerships with Toyota positioned the company for gains in 2025. However, tariff risks and DeepSeek’s competitive AI models require caution. The AI market’s growth and the chipmaker’s $44 billion first-quarter revenue position Nvidia to achieve its $170 billion full-year revenue target, while its cash buffer and Stargate Project role offer stability. Still, valuation concerns linger. Nvidia is a buy for growth-oriented investors, but others should use caution [1].

References:
[1] https://247wallst.com/investing/2025/08/13/nvidia-nasdaq-nvda-stock-price-prediction-for-2025-where-will-it-be-in-1-year/
[2] https://www.ainvest.com/news/nvidia-hits-high-china-chip-deal-2508/
[3] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/11/trump-nvidia-amd-china-chip-revenue-deal-implications.html