Nvidia Stock Nears Key 148 Resistance With Bullish Technical Signals

Candlestick Theory
Nvidia's recent candlestick pattern shows back-to-back bullish sessions, closing near session highs at $147.9. This follows a Hammer pattern on June 20 (low: $142.65, close: $143.85), signaling rejection of lower prices. Key resistance is evident at $148 (tested multiple times in June), while support clusters near $142–$138, anchored to June 13–17 lows. The current rally faces overhead supply, requiring sustained volume to breach $148 decisively.
Moving Average Theory
All key moving averages exhibit bullish alignment:
- 50-day MA (~$135) trending upward
- 100-day MA (~$130) and 200-day MA (~$120) sloping positively
The price consistently trades above all MAs, confirming a long-term uptrend. The 50-day MA provided dynamic support during the mid-June pullback. A potential Golden Cross occurred earlier this year (50-day above 200-day), reinforcing structural strength.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows a bearish crossover on June 11 but with a diminishing histogram, suggesting weakening downward momentum. KDJ oscillators (K:70.2, D:68.5, J:73.6) hover near overbought territory (70+), though without extreme divergence. Notably, a minor bearish divergence emerged in late June as price neared $148 while KDJ failed to exceed prior highs, warranting caution.
Bollinger Bands
Bands contracted sharply in mid-June (Bandwidth narrowed 15%), signaling reduced volatility before the current breakout. Price currently hugs the upper band ($148.5), reflecting bullish momentum. A close above the upper band would indicate overextension, while a retreat to the midline ($142.3) could offer support.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 24% during the June 24 rally vs. prior session, validating the breakout attempt. However, volume remains below pivotal levels seen on May 29 ($139.19 close, 370M shares) and April 9 ($114.33 close, 613M shares). Distribution signals appeared on June 13 (high volume decline: -2.09%), underscoring resistance near $148. Sustainable rallies require volume expansion above 200M shares.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Current 14-day RSI: 61.89 (neutral-bullish), recovering from June’s oversold trough (RSI: 42.6). Despite recent gains, RSI remains below overbought thresholds (<70), suggesting room for upside. The divergence from June’s price consolidation may indicate accumulation.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing low of $96.3 (April 2025) and high of $148 (June 2025):
- 23.6% retracement: $138.23
- 38.2% level: $142.76 (validated as support on June 16–17)
- 50% level: $122.15
Recent price action respected the 38.2% level, reinforcing its significance. A breakout above $148 projects a 161.8% extension toward $162.
Confluence & Divergence Summary
Confluent Bullish Signals:
1. Golden Cross (50-day > 200-day MA)
2. Volume-confirmed breakout above $142.76 Fibonacci level
3. RSI recovery from neutral zone
Key Warnings:
- MACD/KDJ divergence at resistance
- Declining volume vs. prior swing highs
- Bollinger Band overextension risk
A decisive close above $148 with volume >200M shares would confirm bullish continuation. Failure may trigger retest of $142.76–$138 support.