Resiliencia de Nvidia en un sector de chips alarmante: ¿Es hora de comprar?

The semiconductor industry is undergoing a seismic shift in 2025, driven by the explosive demand for AI infrastructure. Global semiconductor sales are projected to reach $800 billion this year, a 17.6% year-over-year increase, with AI-driven data center semiconductors accounting for $349 billion of compute segment revenue-a 36% jump from 2024. At the center of this transformation is Nvidia, whose data center revenue surged to $30.8 billion in Q3 2025, a 112% year-over-year increase. Yet, as the sector faces growing competition and signs of investor rotation, the question remains: Is Nvidia's current valuation justified, or does it represent a speculative overreach?

The AI Semiconductor Supercycle: Nvidia's Dominance and Challenges

Nvidia's market capitalization hit $4.5 trillion in September 2025, cementing its role as the linchpin of the AI industrial revolution. Its financials reflect this dominance: 2025 revenue reached $187.1 billion, with net income of $72.9 billion and gross and net margins of 70.1% and 56%, respectively according to financial analysis. A Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 161.5% and a conservative debt-to-equity ratio of 9.1% further underscore its operational strength.

However, cracks are emerging. Hyperscalers like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are developing in-house AI chips to reduce reliance on Nvidia's GPUs. This trend threatens Nvidia's margins, as custom silicon from rivals could erode its pricing power. Meanwhile, short sellers like Michael Burry have taken significant positions against the stock, warning of overvaluation in the AI sector.

Contrarian Signals: Short Interest and Sector Rotation

Despite these risks, short interest in Nvidia remains relatively low. As of December 15, 2025, 264.29 million shares were sold short, representing 1.13% of the public float-a 13.48% increase from the prior quarter but still a modest level according to market data.

The short interest ratio of 1.5 days to cover suggests limited bearish conviction according to market data. This contrasts with the broader market, where sector rotation has begun to favor traditional industries. Over the past six months, investor interest has shifted from high-growth tech to value-oriented sectors, a trend consistent with historical patterns during late-stage bull markets.

Yet, the AI semiconductor sector remains a long-term growth engine. Demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), critical for AI chips, is expected to grow at a 21.7% compound annual rate, reaching $32.6 billion by 2026. Innovations like Nvidia's upcoming Blackwell GPU architecture and inference-focused AI models position the company to benefit from this trajectory.

Analyst Consensus: Bullish Outlooks and Price Targets

Wall Street analysts remain largely optimistic. Bank of America's Vivek Arya reiterated a "Buy" rating with a $275 price target, citing Nvidia's technological edge and favorable 2026/2027 P/E multiples of 25x and 19x. Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon and Jefferies' Blayne Curtis echoed similar sentiments, with price targets of $275 and $250, respectively according to analyst reports. Mizuho's Outperform rating at $245 highlights Nvidia's strategic pivot to inference processing, a critical area for AI workloads.

MarketBeat's consensus of 54 analyst ratings shows a "Buy" rating with an average price target of $262.14-40.56% above the current price. The highest target, $352, reflects confidence in Nvidia's ability to maintain its leadership amid sector headwinds.

The Verdict: A Buy for the Long-Term, But With Caution

Nvidia's resilience in a cooling chip sector is underpinned by its technological moat, robust financials, and dominant position in AI infrastructure. However, investors must weigh these strengths against emerging risks: hyperscaler competition, sector rotation, and valuation concerns. For those with a long-term horizon, the company's pipeline of innovations-Blackwell, Rubin, and HBM4-offers compelling upside. Yet, short-term volatility and speculative overvaluation, as flagged by contrarians like Burry, warrant caution.

In a market where AI is reshaping industries, Nvidia remains a key player. But as the sector evolves, patience and discipline will be as critical as conviction.