Nvidia Outlook - A Volatile Path Ahead as Mixed Signals Diverge

1. Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Nvidia's stock faces a "weak technology" environment with mixed technical signals, and recent price trends show a -2.35% drop. Analysts are split, and internal diagnostic scores highlight the need for caution.

2. News Highlights

• McKinsey on Tariffs and Chip Supply Chains: New research from McKinsey explores the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on semiconductor supply chains, signaling uncertainty for the industry, including Nvidia.
• Japan's Rare Earths and Semiconductors Cooperation: Japan plans to propose deeper U.S. collaboration on rare earths and semiconductors, potentially helping to reduce China's influence and rebalance trade. This could indirectly affect Nvidia's global supply dynamics.
• Semiconductor ETF Outflows: The US Semiconductors ETF (SOXX) faced a $750 million net outflow in May 2025, signaling broader market jitters in the sector. This could affect Nvidia's liquidity and investor sentiment.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analyst Ratings: - Average (simple mean): 4.44 - Weighted (performance-weighted): 2.40 - Rating Consistency: Mixed, with a range of "Strong Buy" to "Underperform" ratings.

Price Trend vs. Analyst Outlook: While most analysts remain optimistic ("Strong Buy"), the current price trend is down (-2.35%), indicating a divergence between expectations and market action.

Key Fundamental Values and Internal Diagnostic Scores (0-10):

• Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities per Share (YoY growth rate %): -93.18% (score: 1.00)
• Total Profit (YoY growth rate %): 297.09% (score: 1.00)
• Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities (YoY growth rate %): 222.21% (score: 1.00)
• Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT / Interest Expense) (%): -88.81% (score: 1.00)
• Inventory Turnover Days: 82.12 days (score: 1.00)
• Cash-MV: 2.42 (score: 2.00)
• Cash-UP: 0.24 (score: 3.00)
• PCF: 5.88 (score: 4.00)
• EV/EBIT: 4.19 (score: 4.00)

4. Money-Flow Trends

Big money remains cautious, with overall inflow ratio at 47.86%, and all categories (Small, Medium, Large, Extra-large) showing negative trends. This suggests large investors are withdrawing or not adding aggressively. Retail flows are also mixed, with Small inflow ratio at 49.27%, but still in a negative trend, indicating retail participation is declining as well.

5. Key Technical Signals

Internal diagnostic scores (0-10) for recent technical indicators show both bullish and bearish signals:

• WR Oversold: 7.88 (Strong bullish)
• Inverted Hammer: 8.03 (Strong bullish)
• Bullish Engulfing: 7.97 (Bullish bias)
• WR Overbought: 3.27 (Neutral rise)
• Dividend Announcement Date: 1.00 (Biased bearish)
• Earnings Release Date: 1.00 (Biased bearish)

Recent Chart Patterns (Last 5 Days): - 2025-09-08: Inverted Hammer (Strong bullish) - 2025-09-04: Bullish Engulfing (Bullish bias) - 2025-09-03 & 2025-09-05: WR Oversold (Strong bullish)

Key Insights: The market is in a volatile state with unclear direction. Long and short signals are balanced, and it's recommended to pay close attention to upcoming market changes.

6. Conclusion

With mixed signals from both analysts and technical indicators, and a weak overall technical score of 4.86 (internal diagnostic score), investors should proceed with caution. The recent bearish events around the Earnings and Dividend Announcement Dates, coupled with a bearish sentiment from big money, suggest it may be prudent to wait for a clearer trend or wait for key earnings data to emerge. For now, watching the chart patterns and staying alert to short-term volatility makes sense.