Nvidia (NVDA) Options Signal $195 Bull Call Play: How Whales Are Positioning for AI-Driven Breakouts in 2026

• Options OI hotspots: Calls at $192.5 and $195 dominate this Friday’s open interest, while puts at $160 and $185 hint at cautious downside hedging.
• Block trade alert: A 26,000-lot call buy at the $175 strike (expiring Sept 19, 2025) suggests big money is locking in near-term AI growth.
• Technical setup: Bollinger Bands show NVDA trading near the upper band ($192.46), with RSI at 53.1 and MACD trending upward.

Here’s what the data says: The options market is clearly leaning bullish, with call open interest outpacing puts by 12% and heavy concentration above $190. But the real story is how this aligns with Nvidia’s AI-driven momentum—this isn’t just noise, it’s a setup for a breakout trade.The OI Map: Where Big Money Is Stacking Chips

Let’s start with the options chain. This Friday’s top call strikes ($192.5, $195, $197.5) all sit above the 20-day moving average ($181.97) and near the upper Bollinger Band. That’s not a coincidence—traders are betting on a short-term pop to test $195, especially with the 30D support/resistance zone ($180.74–$181.13) holding firm.

The puts, meanwhile, tell a different story. While $185 and $180 strikes have decent open interest, the $160 put (a 9% OTM level) is the deepest concern. It’s a classic “floor-hedging” play—investors aren’t pricing in a crash, but they’re bracing for a pullback. The put/call ratio of 0.88 (call-heavy) reinforces the bullish bias.

Don’t ignore the block trades either. That 26,000-lot call buy at the $175 strike (NVDA20250919C175) is a whale-sized bet on near-term AI demand. Combine that with the $160 put block trade (NVDA20260116P160) and you’ve got a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” playbook—positioning for a rally while hedging against a slowdown in chip demand.

News That Fuels the Fire

Nvidia’s recent headlines are all about AI dominance. The Groq acquisition (even if controversial) adds low-latency inference firepower, and analysts are raising price targets to $275–$300. But here’s the catch: the market isn’t fully pricing in this yet. The stock is trading at $187.85, 34% below the average $253.19 target. That’s a gap waiting to close.

The risk? Competition is heating up. Amazon’s Trainium3 and Meta’s Manus acquisition are direct threats. But the options data doesn’t reflect panic—those $160 puts are a small fraction of total OI. For now, the narrative is “AI growth will outpace disruption.”

Trade Ideas: Calls for the Ride, Puts for the Safety NetFor options traders: The NVDA20260102C1925 call (expiring Jan 2, 2026) is a prime candidate. With 74,156 open contracts, it’s a liquid strike aligned with the upper Bollinger Band. If NVDA breaks $192.5, this call could see 20%+ gains in a week. For a longer play, the NVDA20260109C195 (34,231 OI) targets the $195 psychological level.For stock buyers: Consider entry near $187.85 if the 200D MA ($159.46) continues to act as a floor. First resistance is $192.46 (upper Bollinger), with a stop-loss below $181.87 (middle band). A bear put spread using the $185 and $180 strikes could cap losses if the AI hype cools.Volatility on the Horizon

Nvidia’s story isn’t just about today’s options—it’s about the next 6–12 months. The Groq deal, Blackwell/Rubin chip launches, and OpenAI’s $100B investment are all catalysts that could push the stock toward $250. But don’t ignore the $160 put OI—it’s a reminder that AI hype can fade fast.

Bottom line: This is a high-conviction bull play with clear entry/exit points. The options market is already pricing in a $195+ move by early January. If you’re in, ride the momentum—but keep that safety net handy. The AI train isn’t slowing down, but the tracks are getting crowded.