Nvidia (NVDA) Options Signal $160 Put Hedge Amid $200 Call Bullish Bet: Here’s How to Play the AI Giant’s Volatility

• NVDA surges 1.67% to $177.94, trading near 200D support at $179.98.
• Options frenzy: $200 call OI (102,720) and $160 put OI (83,889) dominate this Friday’s chain.
• Block trades: 26,000 calls bought at $175 strike (expiring 9/19), hinting at institutional bullishness.

The market is torn between optimism and caution. With calls outpacing puts 1.1x in open interest, bulls are betting on a breakout—but bearish technicals and geopolitical risks mean hedging is key. Let’s break it down.

What the Options Chain Reveals About Market Sentiment

The options data tells a story of two camps: one eyeing a rally past $200, the other bracing for a drop to $160. This Friday’s top OTM calls ($200, $235, $205) show heavy demand for a 7%+ move, while puts at $160 and $170 suggest traders are hedging a 10%+ drop. The put/call ratio of 0.908 (calls > puts) leans bullish, but the bearish engulfing candle and MACD crossover below the signal line warn of short-term weakness.

Block trades add intrigue. A 26,000-lot call buy at NVDA20250919C175 (expiring in 2 months) signals big money is positioning for a post-earnings pop. Meanwhile, the $160 put OI (48,004 for next Friday) acts like an insurance policy against a breakdown below Bollinger Bands’ lower bound at $174.64.

How News Shapes the Narrative

Nvidia’s Nemotron AI models and SchedMD acquisition are fueling long-term optimism. Open-sourcing tools and expanding its CUDA ecosystem could lock in developer loyalty, but the $4.261T market cap already prices in much of this. The real question is whether the U.S. government will greenlight H200 chip exports to China—a $500M+ revenue line at risk.

Analysts like Bernstein ($275 PT) and J.P. Morgan ($250 PT) are bullish, but custom AI chips from Amazon and Google and AMD’s MI300X could erode margins. The stock’s 45.8 P/E ratio feels stretched if growth slows—even a 5% earnings miss could trigger a 15% pullback.

Actionable Trade Ideas for TodayFor Options Traders:

• Bullish Play: Buy NVDA20251219C180 (this Friday’s $180 call) if NVDA breaks above $178.41. The $180 strike has 79,658 OI and offers 15% upside if the stock holds its 30D support at $186.49.
• Bearish Hedge: Buy NVDA20251226P160 (next Friday’s $160 put) to protect against a drop below $175.03. The $160 strike has 48,004 OI and caps losses if the 200D MA ($156.07) reasserts itself.

For Stock Traders:

• Buy Near $175.03 if the stock tests its intraday low. A close above $178.41 would target $181.94 (middle BB) and then $186.49 (30D support).
• Short Near $178.41 if the bearish engulfing pattern completes. A breakdown below $174.64 (lower BB) could target $165–$160.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next 2 weeks will test NVDA’s resolve. A breakout above $186.49 could reignite the AI hype train, while a breakdown below $174.64 would invite short-term panic. Either way, the options market is pricing in $160–$200 volatility—a range that reflects both the stock’s dominance and its fragility. Stay nimble, and let the data guide your bets.

Final note: This isn’t a buy recommendation—it’s a playbook for navigating a stock that’s as much about sentiment as fundamentals. The AI story isn’t over, but the road ahead is bumpy.