Nvidia's Earnings Event: Navigating the Bull Case vs. Overheating Blackwell Risks

Nvidia's upcoming earnings report on November 19, 2025, has become a pivotal moment for investors weighing the company's ambitious growth trajectory against emerging technical and geopolitical risks. At the heart of this debate lies the Blackwell GPU, a cornerstone of Nvidia's strategy to dominate the AI chip market. While the bull case for Blackwell is bolstered by renewed access to China and record revenue visibility, recent reports of overheating issues and supply chain bottlenecks have introduced critical uncertainties. This analysis explores how investors can strategically hedge their positions to balance optimism with caution ahead of the earnings event.

The Bull Case: China Reopening and Revenue Expansion

The most compelling catalyst for Nvidia's bull case is the resumption of H20 AI chip exports to China, authorized by the Trump administration in July 2025. This policy shift reverses a prior ban that had crippled Nvidia's sales in the region, unlocking access to a $50 billion AI chip market. Analysts at Forbes argue that this development, coupled with plans to launch a lower-priced Blackwell GPU tailored for Chinese customers, could reassert Nvidia's dominance against domestic rivals like Huawei.

Moreover, the U.S.-China trade framework, which includes commitments from China to supply rare earth elements in exchange for relaxed export curbs, signals a broader de-escalation in tensions. This strategic recalibration has fueled optimism among investors, with price targets for Nvidia's stock climbing to $190 by year-end. Susquehanna analyst Christopher Rolland further reinforces this view, noting that the Blackwell Ultra GPU's higher average sales price and the ramp-up of rack-scale systems could drive double-digit sequential revenue growth in Q4 2025.

The Risks: Overheating, Power Walls, and Supply Chain Bottlenecks

Despite the bullish momentum, technical challenges with the Blackwell GPU have raised red flags. reveal that the chip is causing overheating in large server racks, forcing hyperscalers like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon to reconfigure their data centers. Nvidia has downplayed these issues as "normal iterations" of new product launches, but the practical implications-delayed deployments and increased operational costs-could dampen adoption rates.

Another looming risk is the "power wall," a term used to describe the physical and economic limits of scaling data-center infrastructure according to Nvidia's official announcement. As AI workloads grow, the energy demands of Blackwell GPUs may strain global power grids, potentially slowing the data-center buildout that underpins Nvidia's revenue projections. Additionally, the aggressive release cadence of Blackwell and its successor creates supply chain bottlenecks for critical components like HBM stacks and TSMC's CoWoS packaging. These constraints could delay shipments and inflate costs for customers, further complicating Nvidia's growth narrative.

Hedging Strategies: Diversification and Hybrid Models

To mitigate these risks, analysts recommend a multi-pronged approach. First, investors should diversify GPU procurement by incorporating alternatives like AMD or Intel, reducing reliance on Nvidia-specific bottlenecks. A 15–20% multi-vendor buffer can provide resilience against supply shocks while maintaining performance parity.

Second, organizations are advised to adopt a hybrid cloud-on-prem model. By using cloud resources for experimentation and burst capacity while reserving discounted on-prem instances for steady-state training, companies can avoid capital outlays and supply chain delays as recommended by industry experts. Locking in GPU availability early with non-refundable deposits-given lead times of 9–12 months for key models-is also critical.

For individual investors, maintaining a portion of exposure to broader AI indices or semiconductor ETFs can hedge against sector-specific volatility. Additionally, monitoring Jensen Huang's guidance during the earnings call will be crucial. If the CEO signals confidence in Blackwell's adoption despite overheating reports, it could validate the bull case. Conversely, any hints of production delays or customer pushback may justify a more cautious stance.

Conclusion: A Tipping Point for Nvidia's AI Ambitions

Nvidia's November 19 earnings report will serve as a litmus test for the company's ability to navigate the dual challenges of technical execution and geopolitical uncertainty. While the bull case remains robust-driven by China's reopening and the Blackwell Ultra's revenue potential-the overheating issues and power wall risks cannot be ignored. By adopting strategic hedging approaches, investors can position themselves to capitalize on Nvidia's AI-driven growth while safeguarding against near-term volatility.

As the clock ticks toward the earnings event, the key question remains: Can Nvidia's Blackwell GPU deliver on its promise, or will its technical hurdles force a recalibration of expectations? The answer will shape not only Nvidia's stock trajectory but also the broader AI industry's trajectory in the years to come.