¿Es la actual valoración de Nvidia una oportunidad de compra en la era de IA?

The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution has reshaped the technology landscape, and few companies have benefited as profoundly as Nvidia. As the dominant force in AI infrastructure, the company has driven exponential growth in recent years. However, as of late 2025, Nvidia's valuation has experienced notable compression, sparking debates among investors: Is this a rare opportunity to acquire a market leader at a discount, or a warning sign of moderating growth?

Valuation Compression: A Reset Amid Rising Competition

Nvidia's trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 44.1, while its forward P/E has dropped to 25.77, a historically favorable level compared to its decade-long average. This represents a 27% decline in its valuation multiple year-to-date, driven by investor caution over slowing growth expectations and intensifying competition from rivals like AMD and Intel according to analysts. Despite this compression, the stock still trades at a 13% discount to the semiconductor-heavy SOX index, a level it has occupied in only 1.3% of trading days over the past decade.

The forward P/E of 25.77 is particularly compelling. Bernstein analysts note that this level places the stock in the 11th percentile of its historical valuation, with historical data showing that purchases at a forward P/E below 25 have yielded average one-year returns exceeding 150% since 2015. Even as the P/E ratio moderated from a peak of 51.24 in October 2025, it remains above the S&P 500's average of 31, suggesting the market still views Nvidia as a high-growth asset.

Historical Performance: A Legacy of Explosive Returns

Nvidia's track record during AI-driven growth phases is unparalleled. From 2019 to June 2025, its shares surged by over 4,200%, outpacing the S&P 500 by a staggering margin. Over a 10-year span, the company delivered a 21,000% return, cementing its status as one of the most successful stocks in modern history. This growth has been fueled by its data center segment, which saw a 66% revenue increase in the most recent quarter, driven by AI agent workloads and demand for advanced GPUs.

The company's P/E ratio has historically expanded during AI booms, peaking at 90.72 in 2021 and 65.1 in 2023. The current valuation of 44.1 is a significant pullback from these levels, yet it remains supported by robust fundamentals. Analysts project 33.46% annualized earnings per share (EPS) growth over the next five years, a rate that would justify a PEG ratio of 0.67-suggesting the stock is undervalued relative to its growth prospects according to stock analysis.

Risks and Realities: Can the Magic Continue?

While the valuation appears attractive, risks persist. Rising competition from AMD and Intel could erode Nvidia's market share, particularly as rivals introduce competitive AI chips. Additionally, regulatory scrutiny over China export restrictions and antitrust concerns may dampen growth. The stock has underperformed the semiconductor index in 2025, reflecting investor skepticism about near-term challenges.

However, Bernstein analysts argue that these risks are already priced in. The firm maintains an "Outperform" rating, citing Nvidia's entrenched position in cloud and data center ecosystems and its ability to innovate in AI software and hardware. With a PEG ratio below 1, the stock offers a margin of safety for long-term investors willing to navigate short-term volatility.

Conclusion: A Strategic Buy for the AI Era

Nvidia's valuation compression presents a compelling case for long-term investors. The forward P/E of 25.77, combined with a PEG ratio of 0.67 and a historical track record of outsized returns, suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth potential. While risks like competition and regulatory hurdles remain, the company's dominance in AI infrastructure and its ability to adapt to evolving demands position it as a cornerstone of the AI era.

For investors with a multi-year horizon, the current valuation offers a rare opportunity to participate in a company that has repeatedly redefined the boundaries of technology-and whose influence in AI is likely to endure for decades.