Nvidia's AGI Potential: From $130B to $9T by 2035

Nvidia's stock could double to $375 per share if AGI arrives by 2030, making it a $9 trillion company. The company's 15-year CUDA ecosystem creates a formidable toll road, while alternative routes are being built. Hidden growth vectors from synthetic research to digital beings represent trillions in computing demand that Wall Street hasn't modeled. The investment case hangs on whether AGI will arrive by 2030.

Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) is poised for significant growth if artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrives by 2030. The company's stock could double to $375 per share, making it a $9 trillion company [1]. This projection is based on the assumption that AGI will transform every industry, creating trillions in computing demand that Wall Street has yet to model [1].

Nvidia's competitive advantage lies in its 15-year CUDA ecosystem, which has created a formidable toll road for AI infrastructure. However, alternative routes are being built by companies like AMD and cloud giants, which could potentially bypass Nvidia's toll [1].

The investment case for Nvidia hinges on the arrival of AGI by 2030. If AGI arrives, Nvidia's revenue could grow exponentially, reaching $1 trillion by 2035 with a compound growth rate of 19% from 2027 [1]. At a net margin of 45% and an earnings multiple of 20, this translates to a $9 trillion market cap, with each share valued at $369 [1].

However, if AGI arrives later or never, Nvidia's stock could be significantly impacted. In a bear case scenario, Nvidia's stock could reach $150 to $200 per share, depending on factors such as margin compression due to competition and changes in the AGI timeline [1].

Nvidia's CUDA ecosystem is a powerful moat, but it is not impervious. The company faces competition from AMD and other tech giants, which are building alternative routes for AI inference. Nevertheless, Nvidia's early lead and investment in AGI infrastructure make it a compelling investment for those who believe in the arrival of AGI by 2030 [1].

References:
[1] https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/intelligence-toll-why-every-fortune-500-company-could-pay-nvidia-2035