Nvidia's $500B AI Pipeline vs. Investor Skepticism Ahead of Earnings

Nvidia (NVDA) is poised to deliver one of the most anticipated earnings reports of the year on November 19, 2025, with its Q3 results expected to reveal a $500 billion order pipeline for AI chips spanning 2025 and 2026 according to reports. This staggering figure, disclosed by CEO Jensen Huang at the GTC conference, underscores the chipmaker's dominance in the AI race despite U.S. export restrictions that have nearly eliminated its China market share according to reports. Analysts project revenue of $54–$57 billion for the quarter, a 56–61% year-over-year increase, driven by insatiable demand for Blackwell and Rubin GPUs from hyperscalers like Microsoft and Amazon according to analysis.

The report arrives amid growing investor skepticism about the sustainability of the AI boom, particularly as valuation concerns intensify. High-profile investors, including Peter Thiel's hedge fund and SoftBank, have exited multi-billion-dollar stakes in Nvidia, signaling caution about a potential AI bubble according to reports. Thiel's $100 million position and SoftBank's $5.8 billion divestment according to market reports highlight a broader shift as investors weigh risks against the company's record-breaking $5 trillion market cap according to analysis.

Nvidia's Data Center division, which accounts for 88% of its Q2 revenue according to reports, remains the growth engine. Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore upgraded Q3 revenue estimates to $55 billion and Q4 to $63.1 billion, citing robust demand for Blackwell and the next-generation Rubin chip according to analysis. However, supply constraints in advanced memory and AI server components could limit short-term deliveries according to reports. The company's gross margin, at 72.4% in Q2 according to reports, faces pressure compared to 75.1% in the prior year.

Options data suggests a potential $300–$320 billion swing in Nvidia's market value post-earnings according to analysis, reflecting heightened expectations. While bulls argue that cloud providers will continue investing in AI infrastructure as long as pricing remains favorable according to market analysis, skeptics point to circular vendor-customer deals and uncertain monetization models for AI startups according to reports.

Huang's roadmap emphasizes Nvidia's evolution beyond GPUs to full AI infrastructure, including its GB300 systems powering hyperscalers like CoreWeave according to reports. Recent data from CoreWeave shows customers re-contracting for older-generation Ampere GPUs according to reports, indicating that even legacy chips retain value in a supply-constrained environment.

As the earnings report nears, the focus will be on guidance for 2026, supply chain dynamics, and whether demand from hyperscalers can offset geopolitical risks. With Morgan Stanley maintaining an Overweight rating and a $220 price target according to analysis, the outcome could reshape the AI trade and set the tone for the semiconductor sector's trajectory.