La perspectiva de Nvidia para el año 2026: ¿Qué está disponible ahora, y qué será en el futuro?

Nvidia's latest quarter delivered a textbook beat. The company posted record revenue of $57.0 billion, a 62% year-over-year jump that underscores its grip on the AI revolution. Yet, the stock's reaction tells a different story. Over the past month, the shares have been essentially flat, and they are down for the year. This is the classic "sell the news" dynamic in action. The market had priced in perfection, and even a stellar report wasn't enough to move the needle.

The core tension is clear. Nvidia's financial strength is undeniable. It generated massive cash flow, returning $37.0 billion to shareholders in the first nine months of its fiscal year and sitting on a $62.2 billion remaining under its share repurchase authorization. This fortress balance sheet provides a powerful cushion. But sentiment has shifted from celebrating the past to questioning the future. Concerns about an AI bubble and the sustainability of inflated levels of AI capital spending are now the dominant narrative, overshadowing the record numbers.

Viewed through the lens of expectation arbitrage, the setup is straightforward. The whisper number for the quarter was already sky-high, given the company's trajectory. When the print came in even better, the market had nowhere left to go but sideways or lower. The stock's flat performance over the past month and its year-to-date decline signal that investors are looking past the past quarter's perfection toward the next set of questions: How long can this growth compound? What happens when the initial wave of AI infrastructure spending peaks? The market is no longer buying the rumor; it's waiting for the next, more uncertain reality check.

China: The $50 Billion Question Mark

The market's focus is now squarely on the geopolitical chess match playing out in China. For all its record revenue, Nvidia's growth trajectory hinges on a single, massive question mark: can it actually sell its chips there? The setup is a classic expectation gap. While the company's latest forecasts don't include China sales, analysts and investors are already looking past that, pricing in a potential windfall from a market that CEO Jensen Huang has said could be a $50 billion annual opportunity. That potential is not yet in the numbers, but it is in the narrative.

The path forward is anything but smooth. President Trump's recent approval for H200 sales is a major win, but it's only one piece of a volatile puzzle. Chinese regulators are now actively halting orders and may mandate that firms buy domestic chips alongside any H200 purchase. In response, Nvidia is hedging against this uncertainty with unprecedented commercial terms. The company is requiring full upfront payment with no options to cancel for H200 orders, a move that protects it from a regulatory freeze but also signals deep doubt about the near-term deal flow.

This creates a high-stakes balancing act. On one hand, the potential upside is enormous. The AI chip segment in China alone could be a $50 billion market, making it a critical catalyst for Nvidia's long-term growth. On the other hand, the execution risk is severe. The company is imposing these stringent terms because it lacks clarity on whether Beijing will greenlight shipments at all. This uncertainty is a tangible headwind that the stock's recent flat performance may be starting to reflect. The market is no longer just pricing in the rumor of a $50 billion market; it's pricing in the very real possibility that the deal gets blocked, delayed, or comes with crippling conditions. For now, that expectation gap is wide open.

Competitive Moats and the "Beat and Raise" Engine

Nvidia's ability to consistently beat expectations isn't magic; it's built on a fortress of competitive advantages that rivals struggle to breach. The most obvious is its sheer market dominance. According to a Susquehanna analyst, Nvidia holds an estimated 80% of the AI accelerator market. That scale creates a powerful flywheel: more customers mean more software development, which in turn locks in more customers. This is the core of its moat.

The real lock-in, however, is software. Nvidia's CUDA platform has become the de facto standard, with an army of loyal developers. Switching away from that ecosystem is a costly and risky proposition for any enterprise, creating a formidable barrier that AMD's hardware improvements alone cannot easily overcome. As one analyst notes, AMD is likely to narrow but not close the gap, a view supported by the stark growth divergence. While Nvidia's data center segment grew 65% year-over-year in the first nine months of fiscal 2026, AMD's data center revenue rose just 29% during the same period.

This moat is being reinforced strategically. The recent partnership with Intel, which includes a $5 billion investment, is a masterstroke. It signals Nvidia's deep integration into the broader tech stack, potentially protecting its ecosystem by making it harder for competitors to gain a foothold. For AMD, this alliance is a direct threat, cited in its own report as an economic and strategic risk that could increase competition and pricing pressure.

The bottom line is that Nvidia's growth engine is designed for sustained outperformance. The company is on track to end its current fiscal year with $213 billion in revenue, an increase of 63% from the prior year. Analysts expect that momentum to continue, projecting earnings to grow by 57% this fiscal year and accelerate to 59% next year. This isn't just growth; it's a "beat and raise" cycle where each quarter's results are used to reset the bar higher. The expectation is for Nvidia to keep delivering on that promise, leveraging its moat to compound earnings at a pace that significantly outpaces the broader market.

Valuation and the Growth Required to Justify It

The market's current valuation tells the real story. Nvidia trades at a forward P/E of 49.7, a premium that prices in sustained hyper-growth for years to come. This multiple isn't a bet on a single strong quarter; it's a bet on a multi-year trajectory that significantly outpaces the broader market. To justify this, the market is effectively pricing in earnings growth that far exceeds the S&P 500's expected 14% annual pace.

The recent 62% year-over-year revenue growth is now the baseline, the whisper number that has already been discounted. The expectation gap has shifted from "Can they grow?" to "How much faster can they grow, and for how long?" The company's own guidance points to a 65% jump in revenue for the current quarter, which is a solid beat against the prior year. But for the stock to move meaningfully higher from here, the next prints must consistently exceed even these elevated expectations.

The bottom line is that Nvidia's valuation is a function of its growth story, not its current financials. The company is on track to end its fiscal year with $213 billion in revenue, an increase of 63% from the prior year. Analysts expect earnings to grow by 57% this fiscal year and accelerate to 59% next year. While these are impressive numbers, they are the floor, not the ceiling, for what the market is already pricing in. Any stumble in this growth trajectory-whether from competitive pressure, cyclical slowdown, or geopolitical friction-could trigger a sharp re-rating. For now, the stock's flat performance reflects the market's wait-and-see stance: it has priced in a lot of good news, and the next set of results must deliver even more to narrow the gap.

Catalysts and Risks: What to Watch in 2026

The expectation gap for Nvidia in 2026 will be decided by a handful of specific catalysts and risks. The primary near-term event is the resolution of China's approval process for H200 shipments. Recent reports indicate China plans to approve some imports of Nvidia's H200 chips as soon as this quarter. This is the critical catalyst that could unlock billions in sales and validate the market's $50 billion opportunity thesis. However, the approval comes with significant caveats: the chip is barred from military, government, and critical infrastructure use. The real test will be whether this access translates into actual, large-scale orders from major commercial clients like Alibaba and ByteDance, which have expressed interest in buying over 200,000 units each.

The second key watchpoint is quarterly guidance. After a quarter of flat performance, the market will scrutinize each update for signs of a "guidance reset". Nvidia's current trajectory is already priced for hyper-growth, with analysts projecting a 65% revenue jump for the current quarter. Any indication that this pace is slowing-whether from competitive pressure, cyclical demand, or execution hiccups-could trigger a sharp re-rating. The company's own guidance, which does not currently include China sales, sets a high bar. Consistent beats against that elevated baseline are essential to maintain momentum.

Finally, investors must monitor for competitive threats that could begin to materially impact Nvidia's pricing power or market share. AMD's upcoming releases are the most immediate concern. While the company is estimated to hold an 80% share of the AI accelerator market, AMD is narrowing but not closing the gap. The partnership between Nvidia and Intel, which includes a $5 billion investment, is a strategic hedge against this, but it does not eliminate the risk. Any evidence that AMD's new chips are gaining traction in key segments or forcing Nvidia to lower prices would be a clear signal that the moat is under pressure.

The bottom line is that 2026 is a year of binary outcomes. The stock's recent flat performance reflects a market waiting for these catalysts to resolve. The China approval is the biggest potential upside, but it is also the most uncertain. Guidance must continue to beat the high whisper number, and competitive threats must remain contained. For now, the expectation gap remains wide, and the stock will likely trade on the resolution of these specific, high-stakes events.