NVIDIA’s 2.82% Gains Sustained by Institutional Buying as Volume Dips 43% to $28.9B, Holds Second-Highest Trading Rank

Nvidia (NVDA) closed Monday with a 2.82% gain, trading on $28.92 billion in volume—a 42.98% decline from the prior day’s figure. The chipmaker retained its position as the second-highest volume stock of the session, reflecting sustained institutional interest despite reduced retail participation.

Recent market activity suggests mixed sentiment toward the stock. Short-term technical indicators show the 14-day RSI hovering near oversold levels, historically signaling potential rebounds. However, macroeconomic headwinds including rising bond yields and sector-wide profit-taking have constrained momentum. Analysts note that the stock’s performance remains heavily tied to earnings expectations and guidance from its AI infrastructure clients.

Strategic backtesting reveals a nuanced edge for disciplined traders. A strategy buying NVDA only when its 14-day RSI falls below 30 and exiting the next trading day yielded an annualized return of approximately 8% from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-13. The approach demonstrated a maximum drawdown under 13% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.53, with winners averaging 3.8% gains versus 3.5% losses for losers. While the edge remains modest, the skew toward positive outcomes highlights the potential for harvesting short-term rebounds from oversold conditions.