Nvidia at $107.57: Is This the Bottom? A Technical Deep Dive

The semiconductor giant NVIDIA (NVDA) has faced a brutal correction, plunging 27% from its recent peak in early 2025. With the stock trading at $107.57 as of April 11—a 5.91% daily loss—the question on investors’ minds is clear: Is this the buying opportunity? Technical analysis reveals a complex interplay of oversold conditions, diverging moving averages, and critical support/resistance levels. Let’s dissect the data to uncover where the bottom may lie.

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Key Technical Signals: A Mixed Bag of Bulls and Bears

The technical indicators paint a contradictory picture, typical of a market in transition.

Oversold Momentum: A Bullish Catalyst?

NVDA’s RSI (14) sits at 40.62, firmly in oversold territory (below 50). The Williams %R (-66.22) and CCI (-100.29) also signal extreme undervaluation, suggesting a potential rebound. Historically, such levels have often preceded short-term rallies.

However, the MACD histogram remains negative at -3.57, reflecting ongoing bearish momentum. The Rate of Change (ROC) at -3.54% reinforces downward pressure.

Moving Averages: Short-Term Bulls vs. Long-Term Bears

The shorter-term 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day SMAs ($100.88, $105.44, $111.81) all signal buys, forming a golden cross with the 50-day SMA. Yet, the 50-day SMA ($119.66) and 200-day SMA ($126.63) remain bearish, acting as formidable resistance.

This divergence hints at a tug-of-war between short-term optimism and long-term institutional skepticism.

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Price Action: Support and Resistance Zones

The chart’s structure offers critical clues for entry points:

1. Immediate Support:
2. $97.06 (S3 pivot): A breakdown below this level would risk a freefall toward $86.62 (April 7 low).

3. $104.37 (S1 pivot): A bounce here could ignite a short-term rally.

4. Resistance:

5. $111.67 (R1 pivot): A breakout here might target $118.98 (R3), but the 200-day SMA ($126.63) looms as a major hurdle.

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Fundamentals and Risks: The Elephant in the Room

While technicals guide timing, fundamentals underscore the broader context:
- Revenue Growth: NVDA’s $130.5B FY revenue and strong Q1 beat (EPS $0.89 vs. $0.85) suggest resilience.
- Valuation: A P/E of 38.89 remains elevated, but growth in AI and data center segments justifies premium multiples.
- Volatility: A Beta of 2.40 means NVDA swings sharply with market sentiment, especially amid U.S.-China trade tensions and semiconductor supply chain risks.

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When to Buy? A Strategic Playbook

1. Immediate Entry (Aggressive Traders):
- Trigger: A rebound from the $97.06 S3 support with volume expansion.
- Target: $104.37 (S1) for a quick 7% gain.

2. Caution Zone (Conservative Investors):
- Wait for Confirmation: A sustained close above the 50-day SMA ($119.66) would signal a longer-term turnaround. Until then, remain sidelined.

3. Earnings Catalyst (May 28):
- NVDA’s next earnings report could redefine sentiment. Strong AI revenue guidance might break the 200-day SMA resistance.

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Conclusion: A High-Reward, High-Risk Crossroads

NVDA’s technicals scream “oversold”, but the path forward is fraught with risks. The $97.06 support level is the immediate battleground—if it holds, a rebound to $111.67 is plausible. However, the 200-day SMA ($126.63) remains a psychological barrier.

For bulls, the RSI (40.62) and Williams %R (-66.22) suggest short-term buying power, but long-term traders should wait for a golden cross (50-day SMA above 200-day SMA). With a Beta of 2.40, NVDA is not for the faint-hearted.

Final Call:
- Aggressive buys: Enter near $97.06 with tight stops.
- Wait-and-see stance: Hold cash until post-earnings clarity.

The semiconductor king’s next move hinges on whether it can claw back above its key moving averages—or succumb to the gravitational pull of fear.