NVDA Options Signal Bullish Momentum: Calls at $190–$200 Dominate as AI Growth Fuels $185–$195 Breakout Potential

• Nvidia’s Q4 revenue hit $12.5B, with AI chips and data centers driving 25% quarter-over-quarter growth.
• Options market shows 1.2M+ call open interest at $190–$200 strikes, while puts lag with top OI at $180–$165.
• MACD near zero and RSI at 41.7 suggest a potential rebound from oversold territory.

Here’s the deal: Nvidia’s stock is dancing on a tightrope between bullish momentum and technical caution. The options market is screaming for a breakout above $185, but the RSI hints at a possible pullback. Let’s break it down.

Bullish Calls and Whale Moves: What the Options Chain Reveals

The options chain is a goldmine for active traders. This Friday’s top OTM calls ($190, $185, $200) have combined OI of 294,922 contracts—nearly triple the puts’ 78,905. That’s not just noise; it’s a crowd betting on a $190+ move. The NVDA20251212C190 and NVDA20251212C200 strikes are particularly juicy, with 120,790 and 64,520 OI respectively.

But don’t ignore the block trades. A 26,000-lot NVDA20250919C175 call buy in late October and a 2,000-lot NVDA20251017C175 call (direction unclear) hint at institutional positioning. The NVDA20260116P160 put activity (buy/sell split) suggests hedging ahead of the 2026 CEO transition.

News Flow: AI Wins vs. Regulatory Headwinds

Nvidia’s recent headlines are a mixed bag. The H200 chip launch and $12.5B Q4 revenue are tailwinds, but the EU antitrust probe and 20% RTX 7000 price hike could slow momentum. Retail investors are likely buying calls on the AI hype, while the EU investigation adds a bearish wildcard. The key question: Will the market prioritize growth optimism or regulatory risk? Right now, the call bias wins—Goldman’s $1,300 price target isn’t helping the bears.

Trade Ideas: Calls for the Breakout, Puts for the Safety Net

• Bullish Play: Buy the NVDA20251212C190 (Dec 12 expiry) at ~$2.50 per contract. If NVDA breaks $185 (30D support at $186.01), this call could run. Target: $195 (Bollinger Upper at $196.37) by expiry.
• Aggressive Play: Buy the NVDA20251219C200 (Dec 19 expiry) at ~$3.20. This one needs a big move—watch for a push above $187.7 (30D MA at $188.99) to justify the risk.
• Bearish Hedge: Buy the NVDA20251212P180 (Dec 12 expiry) at ~$1.80. If the stock dips below $182.24 (200D support), this put could cap losses.
• Stock Entry: Consider buying NVDA near $185 (intraday low) if it holds above $182.40. Target: $195 (Bollinger Upper) with a stop at $179.98 (200D support).

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Hype and Reality

Nvidia’s stock isn’t just a tech play—it’s a barometer for AI’s commercial viability. The options data and news flow point to a stock primed for a breakout, but don’t ignore the risks. The EU probe could drag on sentiment, and Jensen Huang’s retirement in Q1 2026 might create short-term jitters. For now, the bulls are in control. If NVDA holds above $182.40, the $190–$200 call strikes could be your best bet. But if it cracks below $179.98, brace for a retest of the $172.59 Bollinger Lower.

Bottom line: This is a high-conviction trade. The AI train isn’t slowing down, but the tracks are bumpy. Stay nimble.