NVDA Options Signal Bullish Bias as $190 Call OI Surpasses $185 Puts: Here’s How to Position for Earnings and Supply Chain Shifts

• Nvidia trades at $188.49, up 0.5% intraday, with volume surging to 71.6M shares.
• Options call open interest dominates at strikes like $190–$200, while puts cluster at $185 and $160.
• Block trades reveal big money buying 26,000 calls at $175 (expiring Sept 2025) and 1,800 puts at $165 (June 2026).

The stock is caught between bullish momentum and a bearish engulfing candle—here’s how to navigate the tension.Bullish Calls Climb the Ladder, Puts Dig Defensive Holes

The options market is a chessboard of bets. Right now, call open interest peaks at $190 (73,934 contracts) and $192.50 (86,523), while puts max out at $185 (31,680) and $160 (23,600). This isn’t just noise—it’s a signal. Traders are pricing in a $190–$200 target zone, but hedging against a drop to $185 or even $160. The put/call ratio of 0.88 (calls > puts) leans bullish, but don’t ignore the bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart. It’s like a boxer throwing a jab while keeping a glove low—ready to counter a drop.

Block trades add intrigue. The 26,000 calls bought at $175 (NVDA20250919C175) suggest big players are banking on a long-term rally. Meanwhile, the $165 put trade (NVDA20260618P165) hints at caution for a deeper correction. These moves aren’t random—they’re a roadmap of where smart money thinks NVDA could go.

News: China’s H200 Demand Fuels Production, But Smuggling Adds Fog

Nvidia’s push to ramp H200 production for China is a tailwind. With 2M GPUs ordered and only 700K available, supply gaps could drive prices higher. But the $160M smuggling case complicates things. While Trump’s 25% export cut might ease tensions, the incident shows how fragile this dynamic is. Retail traders might cheer the production boost, but institutional investors are hedging—hence the heavy put OI at $160. The stock’s 0.5% rise today reflects optimism, but the smuggling saga adds a layer of regulatory risk no one can ignore.

Trade Ideas: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Protection

• For options: Buy NVDA20260109C190 (next Friday’s $190 call) if NVDA breaks above $190.56 (today’s high). The 73,934 OI at this strike suggests a magnet effect. For downside, buy NVDA20260109P185 to cap losses if the bearish engulfing pattern plays out.
• For stock: Enter near $188.50 if the price holds above 30D support at $181.13. Target $193 (upper Bollinger Band) if the $190 call strike acts as a catalyst. Exit below $182.25 (middle Bollinger Band) to lock in gains.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Momentum and Bearish Shadows

Nvidia’s story is a tightrope walk. The long-term bullish trend (200D MA at $159.80) and MACD crossover (1.46 histogram) favor higher prices, but the bearish engulfing candle and $160 put OI warn of a potential pullback. The key is timing: if NVDA holds above $188, the $190–$195 call strikes could ignite. But if it dips below $185, the puts at $160 might force a reevaluation. This isn’t a one-way bet—it’s a dance between supply chain optimism and regulatory uncertainty. Stay nimble, and let the options market guide your next move.