NVDA Options Signal Aggressive Bullish Play: Calls at $200–$220 Dominate as AI Earnings Fuel Volatility

• Nvidia’s Q4 earnings smashed estimates, with $22.5B revenue and a $40B Arm acquisition reshaping its AI roadmap.
• Options market frenzy: Call open interest at $200+ strikes dwarfs puts, with a 0.90 put/call ratio hinting at aggressive bullish positioning.
• Block trades like 26,000 shares of the NVDA20250919C175 call suggest big players are hedging or scaling up ahead of key catalysts.

Here’s what the data tells us: Nvidia’s stock is perched on a knife’s edge. The options market is pricing in a sharp rally above $186 (30D resistance) but faces risks if the $172.58 (lower Bollinger Band) support breaks. Let’s break it down.Bullish Calls Dominate, But Puts Signal Caution

The options chain is a goldmine for directional clues. This Friday’s top OTM calls ($190, $200, $220) have combined OI of 218,877 contracts—nearly double the puts’ 78,965. That’s not just bullish; it’s aggressively bullish. Traders are betting on a breakout above $186, with the $200 strike acting as a psychological ceiling for near-term bets.

But don’t ignore the puts. The $180 strike ($20450 OI) and $165 ($23618 OI) are quietly building a floor. If the stock stumbles below $182.24 (200D support), those puts could trigger a short-covering rally. The key? Volume. The NVDA20251219C200 call (104,592 OI) is the most liquid and could see explosive action if the $186.61 resistance cracks.

Block trades add intrigue. The 26,000-share NVDA20250919C175 call buy (turnover: $7.7M) suggests big players are hedging long-term exposure. Meanwhile, the 1250-share NVDA20260116P160 put sell-off hints at bearish positioning for January 2026—keep an eye on that if the stock dips.

News Flow: AI Wins vs. Regulatory Headwinds

Nvidia’s story is a mixed bag. The $3B DOE contract and $10B share buyback are tailwinds, but the EU fine and China’s antitrust probe add friction. Here’s the kicker: the market is pricing in the best-case scenario. The $40B Arm acquisition, if approved, could supercharge AI integration, but regulatory delays might force a pullback. Morgan Stanley’s $150 price target feels optimistic unless the stock retests $170.

Actionable Trade IdeasFor Options Traders:

• Bullish Play: Buy the NVDA20251219C200 (next Friday’s $200 call). With 104,592 OI, this is the most liquid and leveraged bet if the stock breaks above $186. Target: $195–$200 by expiration.
• Bearish Hedge: A put spread using the NVDA20251219P180 ($20450 OI) and NVDA20251219P165 ($23618 OI) could profit if the stock corrects to $175–$180.

For Stock Traders:

• Entry: Consider buying near $184.48 (middle Bollinger Band) if the stock holds above $182.40. Target: $190 (upper Bollinger Band) if the $186.61 resistance breaks.
• Stop-Loss: Exit below $180 to avoid a potential breakdown.

Volatility on the Horizon

Nvidia’s next move hinges on two things: Arm acquisition progress and Q1 2026 guidance. If the EU and China clear the deal, the stock could surge past $200. But if supply chain delays persist or regulatory hurdles mount, the $172.58–$179.98 support range will be critical. For now, the options market is pricing in a 10%+ rally—take it seriously, but don’t ignore the puts. This isn’t a one-way bet; it’s a high-stakes chess game.