NVDA Options Signal $200 Call Contention as Bulls Outpace Bears—Here’s How to Play the Breakout

• NVDA trades at $184.55, down 0.17% but clinging to 30D support at $184.65.
• Call open interest dominates at $200 strikes, with a 0.89 put/call ratio showing bullish bias.
• Block trades on $180 puts (expiring 1/23) hint at institutional hedging ahead of Rubin platform rollout.

Here’s the takeaway: NVDA is caught in a tug-of-war between short-term profit-taking and long-term AI hype. The stock’s 90-day bullish trend clashes with near-term bearish momentum, but options data and news flow suggest bulls are positioning for a breakout above $190. Let’s break down why—and how to trade it.

The $200 Call Wall and Institutional Hedging

The options market is a chessboard of expectations. Right now, NVDA20260116C200 (this Friday’s $200 call) has 163,665 open contracts—the highest of any strike. That’s not just noise: it’s a price level where big money is betting on a rally. Meanwhile, NVDA20260123P180 (next Friday’s $180 put) saw a 7,200-contract block trade, suggesting hedge funds are bracing for a dip.

Think of it like a seesaw. Heavy call buying at $200 implies traders expect a surge to test Bollinger Upper Band ($195.56). But those $180 puts act as a safety net—if the stock stumbles below 200D MA ($162.19), the puts could limit downside. The risk? If China’s H200 chip delays linger, the stock might gap lower, invalidating the $200 call’s case.

News Flow: AI Hype vs. Near-Term Headwinds

NVIDIA’s $1B Lilly AI lab and Rubin platform rollout are long-term tailwinds. The Rubin platform’s 90% cheaper inference costs could supercharge demand from Microsoft and Amazon. But here’s the catch: the stock’s 1.8% monthly drop reflects jitters over paused Chinese H200 orders. Beijing’s hesitation could delay $54B in chip sales, creating a short-term overhang.

Investor sentiment is split. Retail traders love the AI narrative, but institutions are hedging. The block trades on $180 puts (expiring 1/23) suggest smart money expects a pullback before the Rubin launch in late 2026. If the stock holds above its 200D MA ($162.19), the bullish case remains intact.

Actionable Trades: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Protection

For options traders:

• Aggressive play: Buy NVDA20260116C200 (this Friday’s $200 call) if NVDA breaks above $185.04 (30D resistance). Target: $190.
• Cautious hedge: Buy NVDA20260123P180 (next Friday’s $180 put) if NVDA dips below $183.68 (middle Bollinger Band). Target: $179.98 (200D support).

For stock traders:

• Entry near $184.65 (30D support) with a stop below $183.02 (intraday low).
• Targets: $186.2 (intraday high) as a first test, then $190. If it breaks $185.04, ride the momentum.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next two weeks will test NVDA’s resolve. A breakout above $185.04 could trigger the $200 calls’ rally, while a close below $183.68 might force institutional buyers to step in. Either way, the Rubin platform’s late-2026 launch and Lilly’s AI lab are catalysts that could redefine this stock’s trajectory. Stay nimble—this is a market that rewards those who balance boldness with caution.