NVDA Options Signal $200 Call Contention as AI Partnership Fuels Bullish Momentum – Here’s How to Play It

Quick Take

• Nvidia’s $1B Lilly partnership and $275 price target upgrade are fueling call options frenzy at the $200 strike.
• Block trades in $180 puts hint at hedging by big players ahead of earnings on Feb 25.
• RSI at 66.9 and Bollinger Band proximity suggest a potential breakout above $187.12.

The Big Picture

Nvidia’s stock is dancing on a tightrope right now. On one hand, the technicals show a short-term bearish pattern clashing with a long-term bullish trend. On the other, options traders are betting big on a rally—but not without caution. The key takeaway? This stock is primed for a directional move, and the options market is giving us a roadmap.

"Call Contention" at $200 and the Put Puzzle

Let’s start with the elephant in the room: 163,665 open interest at the $200 call strike (expiring Friday). That’s not just noise—it’s a crowd of traders expecting a 7%+ pop in the next four days. But here’s the twist: the put/call ratio for open interest is 0.896, meaning calls dominate. Yet the top puts (like the $100 strike with 102,773 OI) aren’t just for show. They’re likely hedges from institutions who want to protect against a sudden AI hype crash.

Don’t ignore the block trades either. NVDA20260116P190 saw 1,500 puts sold this week—possibly by Lilly or NVIDIA themselves to lock in downside protection. Meanwhile, the $180 put block trades (expiring Jan 23 and Feb 20) suggest big players are bracing for volatility. This isn’t a simple bullish story—it’s a tug-of-war between AI euphoria and risk management.

The Lilly Effect: Why This Partnership Matters

The $1B Lilly deal isn’t just a headline—it’s a $13.5B market cap catalyst if BioNeMo becomes the drug discovery standard. Mizuho’s $275 price target isn’t out of reach when you consider this partnership could unlock recurring software revenue for NVIDIA. But here’s the catch: the stock’s beta of 2.31 means it could get whipsawed if AI hype falters or regulatory hurdles pop up. Right now, the news flow and options data are aligned—but don’t bet the farm on a straight-line rally.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls, Puts, and Precision Entries

For options traders, the most compelling setup is the NVDA20260123C190 (next Friday’s $190 call). Why? It’s cheaper than the $200 calls ($187.12 is just 1.1% away from the high), and if the stock breaks above $187.12, this strike could see explosive gains. For downside protection, consider the NVDA20260123P180 (15,821 OI)—it’s closer to current price action and offers a buffer if the AI narrative stumbles.

Stock traders should watch the $183.02 intraday low as a critical support level. If it holds, consider entries near $183.50 with a tight stop below $182.24 (200D support). The first target is $195.56 (upper Bollinger Band), but a breakout above $187.12 could accelerate momentum toward $190. Remember: volume is already at 90M—this isn’t a sleepy stock.Volatility on the Horizon

The next two weeks will test Nvidia’s resolve. Earnings on Feb 25 could be a catalyst or a correction trigger, depending on how the Lilly lab’s progress is received. For now, the options market is pricing in a 7-8% move by Friday—but the real game starts when the $200 calls expire. If the stock closes above $187.12, watch for a stampede toward $195. If it falters, the $180 puts could become a battleground. Either way, this is a stock where patience and precision will pay off.