NVDA Options Signal $190 Call Battle: Bullish Breakout or Bearish Trap?

• NVDA trades at $180.26, down 0.37% with volume surging to 33.4M shares.
• Options data shows 142,909 open interest at the $190 call (Friday expiry) and 33,822 at the $170 put.
• Block trades reveal 26,000 H200 call contracts bought in September, hinting at strategic positioning.

Here’s the takeaway: Options market sentiment is split between cautious optimism and defensive positioning. With NVDA hovering near its 200-day MA ($155.80) and key support/resistance clusters, today’s data paints a stock at a crossroads—ready to break out or collapse, depending on how the next catalyst plays out.

The $190 Call Wall and Institutional Chess Moves

Let’s start with the elephant in the room: 142,909 open interest at the $190 call (expiring Friday). That’s not just noise—it’s a crowd of traders betting NVDA will surge past its 30D MA ($187.30) before the weekend. Pair that with the $200 call (105,687 OI) for next Friday, and you’ve got a clear strike price battleground. But don’t ignore the puts: 33,822 at $170 and a block trade of 26,000 H200 calls bought in September suggest big players are hedging both directions.

The MACD (-1.43) and RSI (50.4) aren’t screaming bullish, but the Bollinger Bands show NVDA is trading near the middle band ($182.53). If the stock can’t break above $182.82 (today’s high) or fall below $179.38 (today’s low), the ranging pattern will likely persist. The block trade at NVDA20250919C175 (buy call) is intriguing—it implies someone with a long-term bullish thesis is locking in exposure ahead of the 2026 H200 China rollout, despite near-term volatility.

News That Could Flip the Script

Nvidia’s “secret portfolio” tanking 30% is a red flag for risk-off traders. CoreWeave’s 46% drop and Arm’s decline signal AI infrastructure fatigue, but Applied Digital’s 208% gain for Nvidia is a lifeline. Meanwhile, the H200 China sales saga is a double-edged sword: Trump’s approval could unlock $500B in AI chip demand, but Sen. Warren’s “national security” pushback means regulatory headwinds are far from over.

Here’s the kicker: Options data and news flow are at odds. The call-heavy open interest suggests traders expect a rebound, but the portfolio losses and geopolitical risks hint at a potential selloff. This tension creates a high-reward, high-risk environment—perfect for structured trades.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls, Puts, and Precision Entries

For options traders, consider these setups:

• Bull Call Spread: Buy NVDA20251219C185 (OI: 106,018) and sell NVDA20251219C195 (OI: 56,071). If NVDA breaks $182.53 (middle BB), the $185 call could gain steam while capping downside risk.
• Bear Put Spread: Buy NVDA20251219P170 (OI: 33,822) and sell NVDA20251219P165 (OI: 24,503). A drop below $179.39 (30D support) could trigger a short-term bounce in puts.

For stock traders, here’s the plan:

• Bullish Entry: Buy NVDA near $179.40 (support level) with a stop-loss below $177.50. Target $185 if the 30D MA holds.
• Bearish Entry: Short NVDA at $182.82 (intraday high) if it fails to close above $185.50. Target $175–$170 if the 200D MA ($155.80) breaks.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next 72 hours will be critical. If NVDA closes above $185, the $190 call wall could ignite a short-term rally. But a breakdown below $179.38 would validate the bearish RSI and MACD divergence. Either way, the block trades and open interest suggest this isn’t a random swing—it’s a calculated chess game between bulls eyeing 2026 and bears wary of AI market pauses.

Your move? Stack the odds in your favor by aligning with the $185–$190 call cluster or hedging with the $170 put. The market’s already pricing in extremes—now it’s time to pick a side.