NVDA Options Signal $180-$200 Bullish Battle: How to Play the AI Giant's Volatility Playbook

• NVDA surges 1.2% to $177.16 amid new open-source AI model launch and Bernstein’s $275 price target
• Options data shows 102K open interest at $200 call strike (this Friday) vs 83K at $160 put — hinting at key inflection points
• Block traders just bought 26K call contracts at $175 strike — a stealthy bet on near-term upside

Here’s the takeaway: NVDA is dancing on a tightrope between bullish AI momentum and short-term profit-taking. The stock’s 1.2% rally today masks a fragile technical setup — with a bearish engulfing candle and MACD divergence warning of potential pullbacks. But options traders are betting big on a $180-$200 price war, and Bernstein’s 57% upside target keeps the long-term flame lit. Let’s break it down.

The $200 Call Wall and Institutional Call Buying

Look at those OTM call options: 102K open interest at the $200 strike (this Friday) dwarfs the next closest at $235 ($83K). That’s not just noise — it’s a crowded call wall that could create a self-fulfilling prophecy if the stock approaches that level. Meanwhile, the $160 put strike has 83K open interest, acting like a safety net for bears.

But here’s the twist: Block traders just bought 26,000 NVDA20250919C175 calls (expiring Sept 19) for $7.6M. That’s not a typo — it’s a long-dated bullish bet that suggests big players see value in NVDA’s AI ecosystem expansion, especially with the new Nemotron models and SchedMD acquisition.

News That Could Tip the Scales

Nvidia’s open-source push is a masterstroke in a world wary of Chinese AI models. The Nemotron 3 Nano being cheaper and more efficient? That’s a direct jab at competitors. Bernstein’s $275 target isn’t just a number — it’s a signal that the market still believes in NVDA’s dominance, even as the stock dips after hitting $5T.

But don’t ignore the risks. The 25% government revenue share policy and export license delays for H200 chips to China could slow growth. Yet the options market isn’t pricing in panic — the put/call ratio of 0.908 (calls slightly ahead) suggests more conviction in the upside than downside.

Your Playbook: Calls at $190, Puts at $160

For options traders:

• Bullish play: Buy NVDA20251226C190 (next Friday’s $190 call). If NVDA breaks above the 30D support/resistance zone ($186.49–$187.13), this strike could catch fire.
• Bearish hedge: Buy NVDA20251226P160 (next Friday’s $160 put). If the stock dips below the Bollinger Band lower bound ($174.64), this put offers downside protection.

For stock traders:

• Entry near $177.16 if the price holds above the 200D MA ($156.07).
• Targets: $181.94 (middle Bollinger Band) for a short-term pop, or $174.64 (lower band) as a critical support test.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next 72 hours will be pivotal. If NVDA holds above $175, the $180-$200 call wall could push it toward Bernstein’s $275 target. But a breakdown below $174.64 might trigger a test of the 200D MA — a psychological floor at $156. Either way, the options market is pricing in a $160-$200 trading range over the next month.

This isn’t a binary bet. It’s a chess game — and the board is set. Your move?