Nutrien (NTR) Up 6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Nutrien (NTR). Shares have added about 6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Nutrien due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Nutrien's Earnings Miss Estimates in Q4, Revenues Up Y/Y

Nutrien recorded profits of $580 million or $1.18 per share for the fourth quarter of 2025, surging from $118 million or 23 cents in the year-ago quarter.

Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings per share were 83 cents per share, up from 31 cents a year ago. The bottom line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 87 cents.

Sales rose around 5% year over year to $5,340 million in the quarter. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5,207.3 million.

Segment Highlights

Sales in the Nutrien Ag Solutions (Retail) segment fell 1% year over year to $3,144 million in the quarter. In the fourth quarter, crop nutrients sales and gross margin fell due to lower sales volumes and a weather-shortened fall window in the United States and lower demand for phosphate. The figure beat our estimate of $2,883.3 million.

The Potash division reported a 37% year-over-year increase in sales, totaling $736 million. The metric missed our estimate of $857.9 million. Fourth-quarter sales rose due to higher selling prices and volumes.

The Nitrogen segment posted sales of $1,093 million, up approximately 11% year over year. The figure beat our estimate of $657.6 million. In the fourth quarter of 2025, sales volumes declined due to the earlier announced controlled shutdown of the Trinidad facility and planned turnarounds at North American operations.

The Phosphate segment generated sales of $483 million, up around 17% year over year. The figure exceeded our estimate of $288.1 million.

Financials

At the end of the quarter, Nutrien had cash and cash equivalents of $701 million, down around 18% year over year. Long-term debt was $9,350 million, which increased 5.3% year over year.

Cash provided in operating activities was $2,977 million in the reported quarter.

Outlook

The company projects retail adjusted EBITDA of $1.75 to $1.95 billion for 2026, with the midpoint reflecting high-single digit growth in proprietary products gross margins, a mid-single digit increase in North American crop nutrient sales volumes, improved weather conditions in Australia and cost reduction initiatives across all geographies.

Potash sales volumes are expected to be 14.1–14.8 million tons, in line with the company’s global shipment estimates. Nitrogen sales volumes are forecast at 9.2–9.7 million tons, factoring in no additional production from the Trinidad and New Madrid facility.

Phosphate sales volumes are expected to be 2.4–2.6 million tons, supported by operational improvement actions.

Capital expenditures are projected at $2–$2.1 billion, consistent with 2025, including $400 million in growth investments targeting proprietary products, network optimization, digital capabilities, nitrogen brownfield expansions and potash mine automation. The effective tax rate on adjusted net earnings has been projected at 24–26%.

Finance Costs, and Depreciation and Amortization are expected to be $0.65-$0.75 billion and $2.4-$2.5 billion, respectively.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Analysts were quiet during the last two month period as none of them issued any earnings estimate revisions.

VGM Scores

At this time, Nutrien has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Nutrien has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

#1 Semiconductor Stock to Buy (Not NVDA)

The incredible demand for data is fueling the market's next digital gold rush. As data centers continue to be built and constantly upgraded, the companies that provide the hardware for these behemoths will become the NVIDIAs of tomorrow.

One under-the-radar chipmaker is uniquely positioned to take advantage of the next growth stage of this market. It specializes in semiconductor products that titans like NVIDIA don't build. It's just beginning to enter the spotlight, which is exactly where you want to be.

See This Stock Now for Free >>

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

Nutrien Ltd. (NTR): Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research