NuScale Power's Volatility and Future in the Trump-Driven Nuclear Energy Boom

The U.S. nuclear energy sector is undergoing a seismic shift under the Trump administration's aggressive policy agenda, and NuScale Power (NYSE: NUS) sits at the center of this transformation. With executive orders targeting 300 gigawatts of new nuclear capacity by 2050 and streamlined regulatory frameworks for advanced reactors, the stage is set for a renaissance in small modular reactor (SMR) technology. NuScale, the first company to secure U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) design approval for its SMR, has surged 120.6% in the first half of 2025, reflecting investor optimism. Yet, beneath the surface, the company's path to profitability remains fraught with operational risks, international hurdles, and an uncertain competitive landscape. For investors, the question is whether NuScale is a speculative bet or a strategic play in a sector poised for decades of growth.

Policy Tailwinds and Regulatory Momentum

The Trump administration's May 2025 executive orders have redefined the nuclear energy landscape. By classifying AI data centers as critical defense facilities and directing the Department of Energy to accelerate reactor testing, the administration has created a direct link between SMR deployment and national infrastructure needs. NuScale's 77 MWe SMR design, which received NRC approval ahead of schedule in 2025, is uniquely positioned to capitalize on this demand. The company's regulatory edge-no other SMR developer has achieved NRC certification- gives it a first-mover advantage in a market where trust in new technology is paramount.

Financially, NuScale's liquidity appears robust, with $489.9 million in cash and investments as of Q2 2025. This positions the company to fund its RoPower Doicești project in Romania and its partnership with the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) for up to 6 gigawatts of SMR deployment. However, these projects remain unproven at scale. As one analyst notes, "NuScale's success hinges on translating regulatory approval into commercial reality-a gap that has historically plagued nuclear innovation" according to UBS analysis.

Market Implications and Short-Term Volatility

The stock's 120.6% surge in H1 2025 underscores the market's enthusiasm for NuScale's potential. This rally was fueled by the administration's policy tailwinds and NuScale's NRC milestone. Yet, the company's financials tell a different story. Despite its liquidity, NuScale remains unprofitable, with no revenue from commercial operations. A November 2025 stock plunge of 55% highlights the sector's volatility, driven by concerns over project delays and UBS's revised price target of $20.

The disconnect between market sentiment and operational reality is stark. While the Trump administration's push to modernize nuclear regulation and bolster domestic uranium production creates a favorable environment, NuScale's ability to execute on its roadmap remains untested. For instance, its Romanian project faces regulatory hurdles in a market with stringent European standards, and supply chain constraints for specialized nuclear components could delay deployments.

Long-Term Strategic Potential vs. Operational Risks

NuScale's long-term viability depends on its ability to navigate three key challenges:
1. International Deployment Hurdles: Regulatory fragmentation in Europe and Asia complicates NuScale's global expansion. Unlike traditional reactors, SMRs require tailored approvals for each market, a process that could delay commercialization by years.
2. Competitive Pressure: While NuScale holds a regulatory edge, competitors like Oklo Inc. and Rolls-Royce are advancing alternative SMR designs that may better suit niche markets or regulatory frameworks.
3. Cost Overruns: First-of-a-kind projects are inherently risky. Construction delays and technical challenges-common in nuclear projects- could erode NuScale's financial margins and investor confidence.

Despite these risks, the administration's 2050 nuclear capacity target and the growing demand for energy-intensive AI infrastructure suggest a long-term tailwind. NuScale's NRC certification could serve as a de facto endorsement, easing entry into international markets where U.S. regulatory alignment is valued.

Conclusion: Speculative Bet or Strategic Play?

NuScale Power embodies the dual nature of the nuclear energy renaissance: a high-risk, high-reward proposition. For short-term traders, the stock's volatility and lack of profitability make it a speculative play, vulnerable to swings in regulatory sentiment or project delays. However, for long-term investors with a multi-decade horizon, NuScale represents a strategic bet on a sector poised for structural growth. The Trump administration's policy push, combined with NuScale's regulatory leadership, creates a compelling narrative-if the company can overcome its execution risks.

In the end, NuScale's success will hinge on its ability to transform its technological promise into tangible, scalable deployments. Until then, the stock remains a bet on potential rather than proven performance.