Numeraire/Bitcoin (NMRBTC) Market Overview

• NMRBTC traded in a tight range, with price testing key levels around 0.0001188 and 0.0001170.
• A bullish breakout attempt emerged briefly in early hours, but failed to sustain momentum.
• Volume and turnover spiked during the 02:30–04:00 ET window, coinciding with the high of the session.
• RSI remained in mid-range territory, suggesting a lack of clear overbought or oversold conditions.
• A bullish flag pattern was formed between 02:30 and 04:00 ET, followed by a failed rally.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-05, NMRBTC opened at 0.0001148, reached a high of 0.0001239, and closed at 0.0001188 after a volatile 24-hour session. Total volume traded was 3,247.69, with notional turnover totaling $3,803.89 (assuming BTC price of $68,000). The pair remained range-bound for much of the session but saw a sharp rise in volatility around 02:30–04:00 ET.

Structure & Formations

NMRBTC displayed a bearish consolidation pattern after a failed rally to 0.0001239. A key support level was tested at 0.0001170, which held through the late hours. Notably, a bullish flag pattern formed during the 02:30–04:00 ET window, but failed to break past 0.0001200. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed at 05:45 ET as the price retested 0.0001183 before falling back. A doji appeared at 03:00 ET, signaling indecision in the market.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, NMRBTC traded above the 20-period EMA for much of the session, suggesting some short-term bullish bias. However, the 50-period EMA acted as a resistance near 0.0001190–0.0001195. For the daily chart, the 50-period EMA is near 0.0001168, while the 200-period EMA sits at 0.0001150, indicating the price remains in a multi-day bullish trend but with increasing short-term pressure.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained positive for most of the session, peaking near 0.0000006 around 03:00 ET. The histogram showed a narrowing divergence after 05:00 ET, indicating weakening bullish momentum. RSI fluctuated between 50 and 60, without reaching overbought territory, suggesting the market is in a neutral-to-slightly bullish phase with no clear exhaustion. The RSI did show a bearish crossover on the 05:45–07:00 ET period.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased during the 02:30–04:00 ET period, causing the Bollinger Bands to widen. NMRBTC traded near the upper band during the 03:00–04:00 ET window before retreating toward the midline. The price currently sits just above the 20-period Bollinger midline, suggesting a potential retest of the upper band may occur.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 02:30–04:00 ET window, with a large notional turnover spike at 02:45 ET when the pair hit 0.0001239. This was followed by a large-volume sell-off at 03:00 ET, resulting in a reversal. A divergence between price and volume was noted during the 05:00–06:00 ET period, as price fell while volume remained subdued.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing from 0.0001170 to 0.0001239, the 61.8% level is at 0.0001203. This level was tested twice during the session but failed to hold. The 50% retracement level is at 0.0001205, which NMRBTC briefly touched during the morning hours. A retest of the 38.2% level (0.0001193) may provide a short-term target if buyers re-enter.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering a long position at the 20-period EMA on the 15-minute chart when RSI crosses above 50 and MACD turns positive. This entry would be exited if the price drops below the 50-period EMA or if RSI falls below 40. The recent 03:00–04:00 ET rally appears to align with this setup, but the failure to sustain the breakout suggests a retest of the EMA or a bearish divergence could trigger a reversal.