Numeraire/Bitcoin (NMRBTC) Market Overview: 24-Hour Downtrend with Bearish Momentum

• Price fell from 0.0001431 to 0.0001346 over 24 hours amid weak volume and bearish momentum.
• A strong downtrend persisted through key Fibonacci levels, supported by RSI and MACD divergence.
• Volatility expanded during the drop but remained low in the final hours, suggesting consolidation.
• High turnover spikes occurred during sharp declines, confirming bearish sentiment.
• No major reversal patterns emerged, with price failing to reclaim key levels above 0.0001380.

NMRBTC opened at 0.0001431 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at 0.0001346 at 12:00 ET, registering a 24-hour low of 0.0001346 and a high of 0.0001431. Total volume reached 1,770.36 NMR while notional turnover (NMR price × BTC value) amounted to approximately 0.239 BTC. The pair experienced a sustained bearish bias with multiple price breakdowns below key support levels.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a descending channel, with multiple bearish candlestick formations including a bearish engulfing pattern during the 17:15–18:00 ET period and a dark cloud cover at the 04:15–04:30 ET window. A bearish breakout was confirmed when price dropped below 0.0001400 support and failed to retest it. The 0.0001376–0.0001388 range is now a critical support-turned-resistance level, with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.0001431–0.0001346 move at 0.0001376. A rebound from this level could offer a temporary counter-trend opportunity.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both remained bearish, with the price consistently trading below both. On the daily chart, the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages are also aligned bearishly, reinforcing the long-term downtrend. No crossover signals were generated during the 24-hour window, indicating a continuation bias is likely.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained below the signal line, with bearish divergence observed during the 04:15–06:00 ET drop. The RSI has spent most of the 24-hour period in oversold territory (below 30), indicating exhausted bearish momentum. However, price has continued to fall despite the RSI suggesting a potential bounce, which could mean either a false signal or an aggressive bearish continuation into oversold levels.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as the pair fell through critical support levels, with Bollinger Bands widening between 0.0001388 and 0.0001358 during the 05:00–06:00 ET window. Price settled near the lower band at 0.0001346, suggesting further downside could be limited unless volatility increases again. A bounce near the lower band may be followed by a retest of the 0.0001376 level.

Volume & Turnover

Turnover spiked during the most significant declines, particularly between 05:00–06:00 ET and 08:30–09:00 ET. Volume during these periods exceeded 125+ NMR, confirming bearish momentum. In contrast, recent hours showed minimal volume and turnover, signaling a potential consolidation phase. No divergence was observed between price and volume, supporting the bearish thesis.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying 15-minute and daily Fibonacci levels to the 0.0001431–0.0001346 swing, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels align with 0.0001399 and 0.0001376, respectively. Price has tested the 61.8% level twice and failed to hold it. A sustained close above 0.0001376 could trigger a retest of the 0.0001399–0.0001402 range. A failure to do so may push NMRBTC toward the 23.6% level at 0.0001393, or even further toward 0.0001360 in a continuation scenario.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the consistent bearish momentum and confirmation from volume and Fibonacci levels, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short entry on a break below 0.0001376 with a stop just above 0.0001388 and a target near 0.0001350. This strategy would benefit from a continuation of the current bearish trend and a failure to retest the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The RSI’s oversold reading and MACD divergence could serve as a confirmation filter to avoid false short signals during consolidation. Over the next 24 hours, traders should monitor whether price holds below 0.0001376 or if a bullish reversal forms at the 0.0001376–0.0001380 range.