Numeraire/Bitcoin Market Overview: 2025-09-22

• NMRBTC opened at 0.0001435 and closed at 0.0001318, down 8.0%. Intraday high/low of 0.0001463 and 0.0001258 observed.
• Strong bearish momentum confirmed by RSI below 30 and declining volume into the close.
• Price tested key support at 0.0001325 twice, with mixed results. Volatility expanded after 00:00 ET.
• Turnover surged during the early morning dip but diverged from price near the session low.
• MACD crossed below zero, suggesting potential continuation of the downtrend in the near term.

NMRBTC opened at 0.0001435 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 0.0001318 by 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.0001463 and a low of 0.0001258. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 5,653.54, while notional turnover reached $766.32 million. Price action reflected a strong bearish bias, particularly after the 00:00 ET reversal, where a large bearish candle confirmed a breakdown below key support levels.

The structure of the 24-hour chart suggests a continuation of bearish pressure, with a key resistance at 0.0001439 and a critical support level at 0.0001325. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed after 06:15 ET, confirming the breakdown. A doji occurred at 18:30 ET but failed to trigger a reversal. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed below the price, reinforcing the short-term bearish outlook. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA at 0.0001414 and 200-period MA at 0.0001382 suggest medium-term bearish momentum.

The RSI dropped below 30 by 06:30 ET and remained in oversold territory until the close, indicating potential for a short-term bounce but not a reversal. MACD crossed the signal line below zero, suggesting continued downward momentum. Volatility increased significantly after 00:00 ET, with Bollinger Bands widening from a narrow contraction observed earlier in the session. Price remained below the 20-period lower Bollinger Band for most of the session, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

Volume surged during the breakdown below 0.0001359 and again near the session low, but waned as price approached 0.0001325. Turnover spiked during the early morning sell-off but diverged from price during the bounce from 0.0001325 to 0.0001333, signaling weak conviction. Fibonacci retracement levels show 0.0001325 at 38.2%, and 0.0001318 at 61.8%, both acting as critical support levels that were briefly tested but not decisively held.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish divergence observed in the RSI and MACD, along with the strong volume confirmation of the breakdown below key support levels, a backtest strategy could be constructed around a short entry with a stop above 0.0001439 and a target near 0.0001300. The strategy would aim to capitalize on the continuation of the trend confirmed by the engulfing pattern and the MACD crossover. A trailing stop could be implemented after the price consolidates near Fibonacci support levels. This approach aligns with the technical indicators and the momentum divergence seen in the 24-hour data.