Nu Holdings Plunges 6.93% As Bearish Signals Converge At Key $13 Support

Nu Holdings (NU) experienced a significant 6.93% decline in its most recent trading session, closing at $13.02 on high volume of 91.4 million shares. This drop follows a rally attempt that peaked at $14.23 on 2025-07-17, which now marks a critical technical inflection point.
Candlestick Theory
The sharp sell-off formed a bearish engulfing pattern near the $14.00 resistance zone, confirming distribution after a three-day advance (2025-07-15 to 2025-07-17). Key support emerges at $13.00, where the price found buyers in mid-July (2025-07-10 and 2025-07-14). A sustained break below $13.00 may trigger extended weakness toward $12.50, while recovery above $13.50 would signal stabilization.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average ($13.50) capped the July rally and now converges with the day's high ($13.98), strengthening resistance. While the 100-day MA ($12.80) and 200-day MA ($12.45) maintain upward slopes, the close below the 50-day MA suggests short-term bearish momentum. Death cross risk emerges if the 50-day crosses below the 100-day, though the 200-day’s positive slope still supports the broader uptrend.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) generated a bearish crossover this week, with the histogram deepening into negative territory – a sign of accelerating downward momentum. KDJ’s %K (39) and %D (45) are plunging from overbought levels (>80 on 2025-07-17), though not yet oversold. The tandem bearish signals suggest further downside potential, with KDJ’s trajectory toward oversold territory warranting monitoring for exhaustion.
Bollinger Bands
Price breached the lower Bollinger Band ($13.20) during the session, closing near its extremity – typically indicative of oversold conditions. The bands widened considerably during the decline, reflecting rising volatility. A reversion toward the 20-day midline ($13.80) could occur, but sustained trading below the lower band may signal continued distribution.
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent volume patterns validate bearish momentum: the sell-off occurred on 91.4M shares (20% above 30-day average), dwarfing the 73.8M average during the preceding rally. This distribution volume, coupled with higher volume on down days since mid-July, undermines the sustainability of prior gains and may foreshadow further downside.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (41) has plunged from overbought conditions (75 on 2025-07-17) but remains above oversold territory. This rapid descent signals strong momentum to the downside, though its approach toward the 30 threshold suggests selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion within 1-2 sessions. Traders should note that RSI can remain depressed during sustained declines.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing low of $10.71 (2025-04-21) and high of $14.23 (2025-07-17), key retracement levels are $13.50 (23.6%), $12.80 (38.2%), and $12.45 (50%). The breach below $13.50 has shifted focus to $12.80, which notably converges with the 100-day MA and a volume-supported base from June. This level offers a high-probability bounce zone if tested.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Confluence at $12.80 (38.2% Fibonacci, 100-day MA, and June 2025 consolidation) presents a critical support cluster. Bearish consensus exists across MACD, volume, and moving averages, though RSI and Bollinger Band positioning hint at short-term oversold conditions. The notable divergence lies in KDJ’s slower descent relative to price, suggesting downside momentum may lack exhaustion. A decisive break below $12.80 would invalidate the bullish structure, potentially targeting $12.45, while recovery above $13.50 would reactivate range-bound consolidation.