NRG Energy: Beating EPS Estimates, Expanding AI Power, and Reaffirming 2025 Growth

NRG Energy, Inc. (NYSE: NRG) reported mixed fourth-quarter 2024 results, with revenue increasing 1.3% year-over-year to $6.858 billion, missing the consensus of $7.59 billion. However, adjusted EPS stood at $1.52, beating the consensus of $1.29. The company also reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, reinforcing its growth strategy and capital allocation framework. NRG shares are trading higher by 7.13% at $109.74 at Wednesday's last check.

NRG had a stellar year, executing across all strategic priorities. The company's Adjusted EPS exceeded the top end of raised guidance, announced the first-of-its-kind residential VPP of scale through its Renew Home and Google Cloud partnerships, and delivered on its capital allocation commitments. Operating cash flow for the quarter was $952 million, compared to $241 million a year ago. Free Cash Flow Before Growth Investments was $624 million, and the fiscal year totaled $2.065 billion. Adjusted EBITDA rose 4.7% YoY to $902 million, and the margin expanded 43 bps YoY to 13.2%.



NRG Energy, GE Vernova, and TIC – The Industrial Company launched a U.S.-based venture to accelerate electricity generation for the growing computing and GenAI demand. This collaboration leverages expertise in power generation, manufacturing, and construction to streamline development and expand capacity. The venture plans to develop 4+ projects totaling 5GW of natural gas power for ERCOT & PJM, with 1.2GW set to launch in 2029 using GE Vernova 7HA turbines. Additional projects will come online through 2032, with potential expansion to 10-15GW nationwide.

NRG also signed LOIs with Menlo Equities and PowLan to provide 400MW of retail power, scalable to 6.5GW, starting in 2026. Pricing will reflect site value and NRG’s supply optimization expertise.



The company reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, reinforcing its growth strategy and capital allocation framework. NRG sees Adjusted EPS of $6.75-$7.75 versus the $7.37 consensus and Adjusted EBITDA of $3.725 billion-$3.975 billion.

NRG Energy's strategic partnership with GE Vernova and Kiewit positions the company at the forefront of addressing the rapidly growing power demand from AI data centers. The venture aims to develop over 5GW of natural gas combined cycle power plants in ERCOT and PJM markets initially, with potential expansion to 10-15GW across the U.S. This initiative offers several opportunities, including diversification of revenue streams, expansion of generation capacity, and a scalable business model that can be replicated across multiple markets.

However, there are also key risks and considerations to keep in mind, such as the extended timeline for the first 1.2GW project, significant capital expenditure requirements, regulatory risks, and the potential impact of technological advancements on the venture's long-term viability.

In conclusion, NRG Energy's strong financial performance, strategic growth initiatives, and reaffirmed 2025 guidance make it an attractive option for investors seeking stable utilities stocks. The company's commitment to creating a more resilient and sustainable energy future through the Renew Home VPP program further enhances its long-term growth prospects and customer satisfaction.