Novo Nordisk sube un 9 % por la histórica aprobación de la FDA: Una jugada de redención o una nueva era?

Summary
• FDA approves Novo Nordisk's first-ever GLP-1 pill for weight loss
• NVO jumps 9.06% to $52.46, trading near 52-week high of $93.80
• Turnover surges 0.53% as investors bet on Wegovy's market dominance

Novo Nordisk's stock is trading at a 9.06% intraday gain on December 23, 2025, following the FDA's landmark approval of its oral Wegovy pill. The surge comes amid a turbulent year for the Danish pharma giant, which has faced guidance cuts, leadership upheavals, and fierce competition from Eli Lilly. With the stock rebounding from a 50% annual decline, investors are weighing whether this regulatory win marks a strategic redemption or a fleeting rally.

FDA Clears Wegovy Pill: A Strategic Redemption for Novo
The FDA's approval of Novo Nordisk's first oral GLP-1 pill for weight loss has ignited a 9.06% surge in NVO shares. This milestone positions Wegovy as the first oral GLP-1 treatment in the U.S., offering a convenient alternative to injectables. The approval follows a year of setbacks for Novo, including mass layoffs, leadership changes, and a public bidding war with Pfizer. Analysts highlight the pill's 16.6% average weight loss in trials compared to Lilly's 12.4%, but note compliance challenges due to the need for an empty stomach. CEO Mike Doustdar emphasized the pill's potential to redefine weight management, with a U.S. launch slated for January 2026.

Pharma Sector Volatility: Eli Lilly's Mixed Performance
While Novo Nordisk's stock soars, Eli Lilly (LLY) trades flat with a 0.67% intraday gain. The pharma sector remains polarized as Novo's oral Wegovy competes with Lilly's orforglipron, expected to gain FDA approval in early 2026. Novo's 9% rally contrasts with Lilly's 185% year-over-year Zepbound sales growth, underscoring the sector's fragmented dynamics. Investors are closely watching how Novo's first-mover advantage in oral GLP-1 therapy translates to market share, particularly as Lilly's injectable Zepbound continues to outperform in prescriptions.

Options and ETFs in Focus: Capitalizing on Volatility
• MACD: -0.319 (bearish divergence), Signal Line: -0.438, Histogram: 0.118 (bullish crossover)
• RSI: 53.46 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: $50.85 (upper), $48.15 (middle), $45.44 (lower)
• 200D MA: $60.68 (above current price), 30D MA: $48.20 (below)

Novo Nordisk's price action suggests a short-term rebound amid long-term bearish trends. Key levels to watch include the 200-day moving average ($60.68) and the 52-week low ($43.08). The Defiance Daily Target 2X Long NVO ETF (NVOX) surged 17.92%, reflecting leveraged bullish sentiment. For options, two contracts stand out:

• NVO20251226C48.5 (Call, $48.50 strike, 12/26 expiry):
- IV: 67.90% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.888 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.1278 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0506 (strong price sensitivity)
- Turnover: 1.56M (liquid)
- Leverage Ratio: 11.72%
- Payoff (5% upside): $52.46 → $55.08 → $6.58 profit per share
- Why: High gamma and IV make this call ideal for a short-term rally.

• NVO20251226C49.5 (Call, $49.50 strike, 12/26 expiry):
- IV: 60.10% (moderate volatility)
- Delta: 0.851 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.1412 (aggressive time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0697 (strong price sensitivity)
- Turnover: 41,030 (liquid)
- Leverage Ratio: 14.61%
- Payoff (5% upside): $52.46 → $55.08 → $5.58 profit per share
- Why: Strong gamma and leverage ratio position this for a breakout.

Aggressive bulls should consider NVO20251226C49.5 into a break above $52.90 (intraday high).

Backtest Novo Nordisk Stock Performance
The backtest of Novo Nordisk's (NVO) performance after a 9% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows mixed results. While the 3-day and 10-day win rates are above 50%, the 30-day win rate is slightly lower at 59.01%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 1.31%, which occurred on day 59, indicating that while NVO had a positive performance, the returns were relatively modest.

Act Now: Novo's Redemption Play Gains Momentum
Novo Nordisk's 9% surge on the FDA's Wegovy pill approval signals a potential turning point for the stock, but long-term bearish trends persist. Investors should monitor the 200-day moving average ($60.68) and the 52-week high ($93.80) for sustainability. The sector's mixed performance, with Eli Lilly (LLY) up 0.67%, highlights competitive pressures. For immediate action, consider NVO20251226C49.5 if NVO breaks $52.90, or the Defiance NVOX ETF for leveraged exposure. Watch for regulatory updates and January 2026's U.S. launch to validate this redemption narrative.