Novo Nordisk shares surge on Ozempic's superior performance compared to Lilly's Trulicity in diabetes and heart disease treatment.

Novo Nordisk's Ozempic outperformed Eli Lilly's Trulicity in a study of 60,000 Medicare patients with type 2 diabetes and heart disease. Ozempic reduced the risk of serious cardiovascular events by 23% and mortality by 26%. The results could give Novo Nordisk a competitive edge over Lilly in the GLP-1 drug market.

Novo Nordisk's Ozempic (semaglutide) has demonstrated significant cardiovascular benefits in a real-world study involving nearly 60,000 US Medicare patients aged 66 and older with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. The study, presented at the 2025 European Association for the Study of Diabetes Congress, found that Ozempic reduced the risk of heart attack, stroke, or death by 23% compared to dulaglutide Study highlights cardiovascular benefits of Novo Nordisk's Ozempic^[1]. Additionally, there was a 25% reduction in the combined risk of hospitalization for unstable angina or heart failure.

The results of this study are particularly notable as they fill a gap in the over-66 age group, confirming the robustness of the evidence in favor of semaglutide. Ozempic is the only GLP-1 agonist that has been shown to reduce cardiovascular and renal risks in patients with type 2 diabetes. This advantage could provide Novo Nordisk with a competitive edge over Eli Lilly in the GLP-1 drug market.

In a separate development, Eli Lilly's experimental pill, orforglipron, outperformed Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide in a head-to-head study involving patients with Type 2 diabetes. The trial, presented at the 2025 European Association for the Study of Diabetes Congress, showed that Eli Lilly's pill was superior at lowering blood sugar levels and helped patients lose more weight. However, it is less clear how Eli Lilly's pill compares to higher doses of oral semaglutide, especially in patients who are overweight or have obesity without diabetes Eli Lilly’s obesity pill outperforms Novo Nordisk’s oral drug in head-to-head diabetes trial^[2].

The market for GLP-1s is expected to grow significantly, with some analysts estimating it could be worth around $100 billion by the 2030s. Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are vying for a greater share of this market, with a focus on developing more convenient oral GLP-1 options to address supply shortfalls and access hurdles created by the pricey weekly injections currently dominating the space.