Novo Nordisk's Oral Wegovy: A Game-Changer in Obesity Care and Its Revenue Implications

Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy pill, a 25 mg semaglutide formulation, has emerged as a pivotal innovation in the obesity care market, with the potential to redefine treatment paradigms and reshape the competitive landscape. Clinical trials have demonstrated that the oral version achieves a 16.6% average weight loss over 64 weeks, matching the efficacy of the injectable Wegovy while addressing patient adherence challengesNovo Nordisk flags Wegovy pill weight loss in line with injection^[1]. With a New Drug Application submitted to the FDA in February 2025 and a decision expected by year-endNovo Nordisk flags Wegovy pill weight loss in line with injection^[1], the drug's approval could catalyze a shift toward oral GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs), a segment projected to grow at a 22.31% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2030Obesity Treatment Market Size, Share | Industry Report^[2].

Market Dynamics and Competitive Positioning

The obesity care market, valued at $15.92 billion in 2024, is dominated by GLP-1RAs, which account for 80.19% of revenueObesity Treatment Market Size, Share | Industry Report^[2]. Parenteral administration currently holds 82.20% of the market shareObesity Treatment Market Size, Share | Industry Report^[2], but oral formulations are gaining traction due to their convenience. Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy, with a 15.1% weight loss rate in Phase III trialsWeight Loss Drug Market Faces Changes? Novo Nordisk Holds the Oral Key^[3], outperforms Eli Lilly's orforglipron (12.4%)Weight Loss Drug Market Faces Changes? Novo Nordisk Holds the Oral Key^[3], positioning it as a strong contender. However, Novo faces intensifying competition: Eli Lilly's Zepbound (tirzepatide) has demonstrated up to 22.5% weight loss over 72 weeksNovo Nordisk Navigates a GLP-1 Gold Rush: Soaring Obesity Drug Sales Clash with Revised Outlook Amidst Mounting Competition^[4], capturing 57% of the U.S. GLP-1 market in Q2 2025Novo Nordisk Navigates a GLP-1 Gold Rush: Soaring Obesity Drug Sales Clash with Revised Outlook Amidst Mounting Competition^[4].

To counter this, Novo has adopted a multi-pronged strategy. It has partnered with CVS Health to offer Wegovy at $499 per month for cash-paying customersNovo Nordisk Navigates a GLP-1 Gold Rush: Soaring Obesity Drug Sales Clash with Revised Outlook Amidst Mounting Competition^[4], while designating it as a preferred coverage option for insured patients. These efforts aim to mitigate the impact of compounded GLP-1RAs, which have eroded Wegovy's market share in 2025Novo Nordisk Navigates a GLP-1 Gold Rush: Soaring Obesity Drug Sales Clash with Revised Outlook Amidst Mounting Competition^[4]. Additionally, Novo's acquisition of three Catalent manufacturing sites in 2024 is expected to alleviate supply constraints by 2026Novo Nordisk Navigates a GLP-1 Gold Rush: Soaring Obesity Drug Sales Clash with Revised Outlook Amidst Mounting Competition^[4], ensuring scalability as demand surges.

Revenue Projections and Long-Term Outlook

Wegovy's revenue trajectory underscores its market-transforming potential. In 2024, the drug generated $8 billion in salesNovo Nordisk Navigates a GLP-1 Gold Rush: Soaring Obesity Drug Sales Clash with Revised Outlook Amidst Mounting Competition^[4], with projections indicating a combined $26.5 billion revenue for semaglutide (Ozempic and Wegovy) in 2025Semaglutide Sales Forecast: Revenue Projections Through 2030^[5]. By 2030, Wegovy is forecasted to contribute $22 billion, surpassing Ozempic's $15 billion as the obesity market expandsSemaglutide Sales Forecast: Revenue Projections Through 2030^[5]. J.P. Morgan analysts predict Novo could capture nearly half of the GLP-1 market by 2030, translating to $33 billion in salesNovo Nordisk’s Wegovy gets a huge boost from JP Morgan ... - Pha…^[6], driven by its cardiovascular benefits (a 20% reduction in major cardiovascular events)Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy gets a huge boost from JP Morgan ... - Pha…^[6].

However, challenges loom. Novo has revised its 2025 growth forecast to 13–21% at constant exchange ratesNovo Nordisk Navigates a GLP-1 Gold Rush: Soaring Obesity Drug Sales Clash with Revised Outlook Amidst Mounting Competition^[4], down from 16–24% in 2024, citing pricing pressures and competition. The company also anticipates a mid-single-digit negative impact on operating profit growth due to manufacturing costsNovo Nordisk Navigates a GLP-1 Gold Rush: Soaring Obesity Drug Sales Clash with Revised Outlook Amidst Mounting Competition^[4]. Despite these hurdles, the oral Wegovy's convenience and clinical efficacy could solidify Novo's leadership in the $71 billion global obesity drug market by 2032Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy gets a huge boost from JP Morgan ... - Pha…^[6], with analysts estimating a 45% sales split between Novo and Eli LillyNovo Nordisk’s Wegovy gets a huge boost from JP Morgan ... - Pha…^[6].

Strategic Implications for Investors

The approval of the oral Wegovy represents a critical inflection point for Novo Nordisk. Its ability to combine therapeutic efficacy with patient-friendly administration could drive market share gains, particularly as obesity prevalence rises and insurance coverage expands. However, investors must weigh the risks of market saturation, compounded drug competition, and pricing pressures against the long-term growth potential of a $37 billion semaglutide market by 2030Semaglutide Sales Forecast: Revenue Projections Through 2030^[5]. Novo's strategic investments in manufacturing, pricing, and partnerships position it to navigate these challenges, but the path to sustained dominance will require continuous innovation—such as its next-generation CagriSema, slated for regulatory filing in early 2026Novo Nordisk Navigates a GLP-1 Gold Rush: Soaring Obesity Drug Sales Clash with Revised Outlook Amidst Mounting Competition^[4].

In conclusion, Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy is poised to transform obesity care by addressing adherence barriers and expanding treatment accessibility. While competition from Eli Lilly and compounded alternatives remains fierce, the drug's clinical and commercial advantages suggest a durable revenue stream for Novo, provided it maintains its agility in a rapidly evolving market.