Nova Minerals (NVA) Surges 27% on Strategic Antimony Refinery Permit and U.S. Defense Funding Momentum

Summary
• Nova Minerals (NVA) surges 27.24% intraday to $34.24, hitting 52-week high of $36.48
• Secures land use permit for antimony refinery in Alaska, backed by $43.4M U.S. Department of War funding
• Intraday range spans $31.64 to $36.48, with turnover of 495,778 shares

Nova Minerals (NVA) has ignited a 27.24% rally on October 13, 2025, driven by a landmark land use permit for its Port MacKenzie antimony refinery and $43.4 million in U.S. defense funding. The stock’s explosive move reflects growing momentum in its dual-commodity strategy, targeting both gold and antimony markets. With a 52-week high of $36.48 and a 52-week low of $7, the stock’s volatility underscores its speculative appeal in critical minerals.

Antimony Refinery Permit and U.S. Defense Funding Drive Nova Minerals' 27% Surge
Nova Minerals’ 27.24% intraday surge is anchored by its secured land use permit for a 42.81-acre antimony refinery in Port MacKenzie, Alaska, and a $43.4 million grant from the U.S. Department of War. The refinery, strategically located near critical infrastructure, positions Nova as a key supplier of military-grade antimony, a defense-critical mineral. The company’s alignment with U.S. national security priorities—evidenced by Senator Murkowski’s support and ongoing federal grant negotiations—has amplified investor optimism. Additionally, metallurgical test results from the Styx Antimony Prospect (60.3% concentrate) and RPM Gold Project (68.7% heap leach recovery) validate its dual-commodity potential, further fueling the rally.

Technical Bull Case and ETF/Options Strategy for Nova Minerals' Momentum Play
• RSI: 81.27 (overbought)
• MACD: 3.22 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at upper band ($27.11), suggesting overextension
• 200-day MA: $12.62 (far below current price)

Nova Minerals’ technicals signal a short-term overbought condition, with RSI at 81.27 and MACD above 3.22. The stock’s price near the upper Bollinger Band ($27.11) indicates potential for a pullback, but the 200-day MA ($12.62) remains a critical support level. Aggressive bulls may consider bold ETFs like XLB (Materials Select Sector SPDR) if leveraged options emerge, though no direct ETFs are currently tied to NVA. Options data is unavailable, but a 5% upside scenario (targeting $35.95) would favor call options with strikes near $34.24. Investors should monitor the 52-week high ($36.48) as a key resistance level.

Backtest Nova Minerals Stock Performance
Here are the results of the 14-day RSI “oversold” (RSI < 30) strategy on NVDA, with each position held exactly one trading day (2022-01-01 → 2025-10-13):Key take-aways (interpretation):• The absolute return (+24.3%) and annualised return (+7.1%) show that oversold bounces have contributed modest upside since 2022. • However, the Sharpe ratio (~0.43) is low, indicating risk-adjusted performance is weak; oversold rebounds are volatile. • Maximum drawdown of 16.3 % is relatively mild for a single-stock tactical strategy, benefiting from the strict 1-day exit. Feel free to explore the interactive chart and statistics in the module above; it contains full trade-level details and equity-curve visualisation.

Position for Antimony Supply Chain Leadership: Buy the Breakout or Wait for Pullback?
Nova Minerals’ 27.24% surge reflects its strategic positioning in the U.S. antimony supply chain and gold exploration. While technical indicators suggest overbought conditions, the stock’s alignment with defense funding and critical mineral demand supports a bullish bias. Investors should watch for a breakout above $36.48 or a pullback to the 200-day MA ($12.62). Meanwhile, FCX (Freeport-McMoRan) leads the industrial metals sector with a 5.01% gain, signaling broader market optimism. Action: Buy NVA on a close above $34.24 with a stop-loss at $31.64 to capitalize on its antimony-driven momentum.