NOTUSDT Market Overview: 24-Hour Price Action and Volatility

• Price declined by ~0.65% over 24 hours, breaking key support levels.
• RSI oversold below 30, signaling potential short-term bounce.
• Volume spiked during the selloff, suggesting strong bearish conviction.
• Bollinger Bands widened, indicating increased volatility.
• No clear bullish reversal pattern observed during the decline.

The Notcoin/Tether (NOTUSDT) pair opened at $0.002007 on 2025-09-13 at 12:00 ET, peaked at $0.002015, and hit a low of $0.001889 before closing at $0.001903 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET. Total volume traded over 24 hours was 819,742,089 units, and notional turnover reached $1,564,895. Price action reflects bearish control with no clear reversal formation.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a strong bearish bias after 2025-09-14 04:00 ET, as price fell below a prior support level at $0.001983 and continued to $0.001908. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed around 05:15 ET, followed by a continuation of downward momentum. A potential short-term support cluster forms at $0.001905–$0.001908, while resistance may appear at $0.001950 if a rebound occurs.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA and 50-EMA are both well below the current price, confirming the bearish trend. The 20-EMA is at ~$0.001937, while the 50-EMA sits at ~$0.001945. On the daily chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-SMA are aligned bearishly, with the 50-SMA at ~$0.001935. Price remains well below all three, signaling long-term bearish sentiment.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative and crossed below the signal line around 2025-09-14 05:15 ET, reinforcing the bearish momentum. RSI hit a low of 28, indicating potential oversold conditions, which could trigger a small countertrend rally. However, given the strength of the bearish move and the high volume during the selloff, a rebound should be treated cautiously as a short-term bounce rather than a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly over the last 8 hours, indicating a surge in volatility. Price has remained near or below the lower band, which is currently at ~$0.001908. A closing above the 20-period middle band (~$0.001935) may offer short-term buyers an opportunity, but a sustained break above the upper band (~$0.001962) is unlikely without a major reversal catalyst.

Volume & Turnover

The highest volume spike occurred between 05:00 ET and 06:00 ET on 2025-09-14, coinciding with the strongest bearish move to $0.001909. Notional turnover increased sharply during this period, confirming the conviction of sellers. While the RSI suggests oversold conditions, the volume pattern does not support a strong reversal. A bearish continuation appears more probable, especially without a follow-through buying leg.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent high of $0.002015 to the low of $0.001889 show 38.2% at $0.001958 and 61.8% at $0.001922. Price currently rests near the 61.8% level and may find temporary support. A break below $0.001908 could target the next 78.6% level at $0.001896.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position on a bearish engulfing pattern confirmed by volume spikes and a RSI reading below 30. Stops would be placed above a 20-EMA or a key resistance level, while take-profit targets align with Fibonacci retracement levels such as 61.8% and 78.6%. A long entry might be considered during a bounce above 20-EMA with a RSI above 50 and a closing above the middle Bollinger Band.