NOTUSDT Market Overview – 2025-09-22

• Price declined sharply from $0.001849 to $0.001625 over 24 hours, ending 11.6% lower.
• Strong bearish momentum with RSI at oversold levels and MACD in deep negative territory.
• Volatility surged early, then consolidated between $0.00163–$0.00165 in final 6 hours.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed in late session, hinting at potential breakout risk.
• Volume spiked during 06:15–06:30 ET as price dropped to $0.001521, signaling panic selling.

Notcoin/Tether (NOTUSDT) opened at $0.001841 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and fell to a 24-hour low of $0.001521 before closing at $0.001625 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. The pair traded between $0.001849 and $0.001613, with a total volume of 637.8 million NOT and a notional turnover of $1,063,211. Price action reflects a strong bearish trend amid heavy selling pressure.

The structure of the chart reveals multiple key support and resistance levels. A strong bearish bias is evident as price broke below the 0.382 Fibonacci level of $0.001775 and continued down to $0.001625, where it consolidated. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed around 06:15–06:30 ET, coinciding with the price dropping to $0.001521. A doji near $0.001634 at 06:30 ET marked a temporary pause in the downtrend, but sellers quickly regained control. Short-term support now sits at $0.001613–$0.001615, while resistance is at $0.001635–$0.001640. A break below $0.001613 could target $0.001590 and $0.001570.

The 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart confirm the bearish momentum with both lines trending downward. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period moving averages are aligned lower, indicating a prolonged bearish phase. The 20-period MA is currently at $0.001635, above the 50-period at $0.001628, which may suggest a temporary consolidation phase but not a reversal. The price remains below the 200-period MA, a bearish indicator for the near term.

MACD remains negative and continues to diverge, suggesting that the downtrend is not losing momentum. RSI has reached oversold territory around 25–30, but without a corresponding bullish reversal in price, this reading should be interpreted cautiously. Bollinger Bands have contracted in the final 6 hours of the session, from 06:00 to 12:00 ET, suggesting that a breakout is imminent, likely to the downside. Price has been trading at the lower band for most of the day, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Volume and notional turnover spiked during the 06:15–06:30 ET period, as price dropped to $0.001521, with $185,247 of NOT trading hands at that time. This volume surge coincided with the bearish engulfing pattern and the doji, confirming the strength of the sell-off. However, in the final hours of the session, volume and turnover declined, with price consolidating between $0.00163–$0.00165, suggesting a possible near-term equilibrium.

Fibonacci retracements on the recent 15-minute move from $0.001849 to $0.001521 show that price is currently at the 61.8% retracement level of $0.001647. A break below $0.001613 would target the 78.6% level of $0.001570. On the daily chart, the retracement from the 0.001849 peak to the $0.001625 close places the 61.8% level at $0.001715, which may act as a critical resistance in the near term. These levels are critical for both short-term and longer-term positioning.

The backtesting strategy described focuses on a bearish breakout and reversal pattern using the engulfing candle and RSI divergence. Given the current context, the strategy could be applied by entering a short position upon a close below the doji at $0.001634 and setting a stop loss just above the 0.382 Fibonacci level of $0.001665. A take profit target of $0.001590 aligns with the 61.8% retracement level and is supported by the recent bearish momentum in both volume and technical indicators. The RSI reading in oversold territory may provide a false signal of a potential reversal, but as long as the 20 and 50-period moving averages remain below the price, the bearish case remains intact.