Notcoin/Tether Market Overview: 24-Hour Price and Volatility Update

• Price action showed a sharp decline in early session before consolidating in a tight range in the latter half.• Volatility surged during the initial hours, with a low of $0.000872, followed by a contraction as price stabilized near $0.0009.• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum during the early dip but neutralized into mid-session.• Candlestick volume peaked at over 108M NOT at 20:00 ET before diminishing significantly through the night.• Fibonacci retracements aligned with key consolidation levels near $0.000902 and $0.000912, suggesting potential support/resistance.

The NOTUSDT pair opened at $0.000953 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET, with a session high of $0.000971 and a low of $0.000872. The pair closed at $0.000964 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 2.11 billion NOT, with a notional turnover of $199,622,951. The session reflected a volatile bearish start and a consolidative recovery into the afternoon.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bearish engulfing pattern during the early hours, with a long bearish candle closing near the session low of $0.000872. A strong rebound followed, forming a bullish harami at the $0.000912–$0.000922 level. The price consolidated in a descending triangle, suggesting a potential breakout to the downside if support at $0.000902 fails. A doji formed near the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $0.000902, signaling indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, reinforcing the bearish bias during the early dip. The 50-period MA re-established as a dynamic support during the consolidation phase. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA remained above the 100-period MA, reflecting a longer-term bearish bias. The 50-period MA appears to be forming a potential golden cross with the 100-period MA, hinting at a potential short-term reversal.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed bearish momentum during the early bearish phase, with a significant bearish crossover and narrowing histogram. By mid-session, the MACD stabilized with a near-zero line, indicating neutral momentum. RSI reached oversold territory at 28 during the low before rebounding to a mid-40s range, suggesting oversold recovery but not necessarily overbought conditions. The RSI and MACD are in alignment, indicating a potential consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands

During the early hours, price broke below the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating high volatility and bearish momentum. As the session progressed, price moved into the middle of the bands, signaling a return to normal volatility levels. The bands were wider during the initial sell-off and began to contract, hinting at a possible breakout or continuation pattern.

Volume & Turnover

Volume peaked at 108.67 million NOT at 20:00 ET during the sharp decline and gradually declined into the afternoon. Turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with the largest notional turnover of $19.14 million at the same time. The volume and price divergence during the mid-session consolidation suggests a lack of conviction in further movement. Price and turnover were in alignment during the early sell-off, confirming the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute swing from $0.000872 to $0.000964, the 38.2% retracement is at $0.000916 and the 61.8% retracement at $0.000935. The price consolidated near the 61.8% level, suggesting a possible resistance zone. Daily Fibonacci levels from the recent high of $0.000971 to the low of $0.000872 show key levels at $0.000926 (61.8%) and $0.000902 (38.2%), both of which appear to have acted as critical levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could use the 50-period MA as a dynamic support line, with a short entry triggered if the close breaks below the 50-period MA and a stop-loss placed at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. A long position could be initiated when the 50-period MA crosses above the 100-period MA, with a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This approach would leverage the mean-reverting behavior observed in the NOTUSDT pair and align with the recent support/resistance structure.