Notcoin/Tether Market Overview for 2025-10-23

• NOTUSDT opened at $0.000816 and closed at $0.000808, with a high of $0.00082 and a low of $0.000773.
• Price experienced a bearish drift, with oversold RSI readings in the last 4 hours.
• Volatility expanded during a sharp selloff from $0.000809 to $0.000784 in the 21:15–21:30 ET timeframe.
• Notional turnover reached $27.4 million, with volume concentrated in the final 12 hours.
• A key support level appears to have formed near $0.000804 after a test in the late New York session.

Price Structure and Candlestick Formations

The 15-minute chart for NOTUSDT displayed a choppy, bearish bias over the last 24 hours, with price forming a series of lower highs and lower lows. A sharp bearish reversal occurred in the 21:15 ET candle, which gapped lower and closed at 0.000784, forming a dark cloud cover pattern. The low of $0.000773 marked the lowest level of the 24-hour window and is now a critical support level to monitor. A bearish engulfing pattern formed in the 19:15–19:30 ET timeframe as well, reinforcing the bearish bias. Price appears to be consolidating near $0.000804–0.000808, which could either form a base or trigger a further breakdown.

Moving Averages and Trend

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs were both trending downward, with price hovering just above the 20SMA in the final hours. The 50-period SMA was at ~$0.000806, and price has remained below it for most of the session. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period SMAs have been in a bearish alignment for the past two days, suggesting a broader bearish bias. Price remains within a larger descending channel, which could see a test of the next key support near $0.000790 if the downward trend continues.

MACD and RSI Momentum Indicators

The 15-minute MACD has been in negative territory for much of the session, with the histogram displaying a bearish expansion after the 21:15 ET selloff. The RSI has spent the last six hours in oversold territory (below 30), suggesting that the immediate bearish momentum may be exhausted. However, as long as price remains below $0.000810, the RSI remains a potential indicator of further downside. The combination of bearish momentum and oversold conditions could lead to a consolidation phase or a small bounce near $0.000806, though a break below $0.000804 would likely trigger renewed selling pressure.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

The 15-minute Bollinger Bands have recently expanded in width following the sharp selloff from $0.000809 to $0.000784. Price closed near the lower band in the 21:15–21:30 ET period, indicating extreme volatility. After that, the bands have contracted slightly, suggesting a period of consolidation. Price remains within the 15-minute bands, which currently range from $0.000796 to $0.000817, with the centerline near $0.000806. If the bands expand again, it could signal renewed momentum in either direction.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume was most active in the 21:15–21:30 ET timeframe, with a turnover of $2.6 million as price dropped to $0.000784. This was the largest single-volume candle of the 24-hour period. In contrast, volume in the final 4 hours has been moderate, suggesting that selling pressure may have eased. A divergence appears between the price action and volume, with price continuing to move lower while volume has declined, which could indicate that the bearish move may lack follow-through. Notional turnover for the full 24-hour period was $27.4 million, with most of the trading concentrated in the 20:30–22:30 ET period.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key 15-minute swing from $0.000784 to $0.000821, price has tested the 61.8% retracement level at $0.000805 and is now hovering near the 78.6% retracement at $0.000812. A break above this level could target $0.000818, but the immediate bias remains bearish. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level from the recent downtrend sits near $0.000800, and a sustained move below that would target $0.000785.

Backtest Hypothesis

The potential backtest strategy under consideration uses a 14-period RSI on the daily chart to identify overbought conditions (RSI ≥ 70), with a sell at the next day’s close. This approach aims to capitalize on short-term overextensions and could be particularly relevant for a volatile asset like NOTUSDT. Given the recent bearish drift and lack of overbought readings in the last 7 days, this strategy would not have triggered a sell signal recently. However, in a broader context, such a strategy could help validate or challenge the technical assumptions about overbought conditions and short-term momentum shifts. The results of testing this strategy on historical data may provide further insights into the asset’s behavior under RSI-driven signals.