Nobel Committee Probes Market Bets as Peace Prize Leak Sparks Integrity Debate

The Norwegian Nobel Committee's October 10, 2025, announcement of Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado as the Nobel Peace Prize recipient was preceded by a dramatic surge in betting odds on prediction markets, sparking investigations and debates over market integrity. On Polymarket, Machado's probability of winning rose from 3.6% at 6:30 p.m. ET on October 10 to 73% by 8:00 p.m., hours before the official 5:00 a.m. ET announcement Forbes^[1]. Similar patterns emerged on Kalshi, where her odds jumped from 1% to over 50% . Three accounts on Polymarket collectively earned approximately $90,000 from these bets, with one user netting $53,500 by placing a $921 wager when her odds were between 3% and 7% .

The Norwegian Nobel Institute, which oversees the award process, has launched an internal investigation into the betting activity, with director Kristian Berg Harpviken stating the committee is "treating this as a serious breach of confidentiality" Blockworks^[2]. Harpviken described the situation as evidence of a "criminal actor" exploiting leaked information for profit . The committee reportedly finalized its decision by October 6, yet the official announcement occurred on October 10, raising questions about how and when information was disclosed .

Economists and analysts have highlighted the regulatory gray areas surrounding prediction markets. Harvard professor Jason Furman noted on X that the abrupt spike in odds "sure looked like insider trading" Forbes^[1]. However, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate under limited oversight. While the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates Kalshi, enforcement remains sparse, and insider trading laws enforced by the SEC do not apply to these platforms Forbes^[1]. Robin Hanson, an economist and prediction market advocate, argued that allowing insiders to trade could enhance market accuracy, while Dartmouth's Eric Zitzewitz countered that such practices deter ordinary participants and reduce reliability Forbes^[1].

Polymarket, which recently secured a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange (parent company of the New York Stock Exchange), has faced prior scrutiny. In 2022, it was fined for offering unregistered event-based contracts and now operates offshore Forbes^[1]. The platform's founder, Shayne Coplan, became the world's youngest billionaire following the funding round Forbes^[1]. Meanwhile, Kalshi, its U.S.-regulated counterpart, raised $300 million in a recent funding round Forbes^[1].

The incident has reignited debates about the role of insider trading in prediction markets. Billionaire Bill Ackman defended such activity on X, stating, "There is no insider trading on Polymarket," and suggesting strategic bets could be used to influence outcomes Forbes^[1]. Critics argue that the lack of regulation creates vulnerabilities, with some viewing the markets as a hybrid between futures exchanges and gambling sites Forbes^[1].

The betting surge also demonstrated the speed of decentralized information flow. Polymarket users identified Machado's win nearly 12 hours before the official announcement, with one user humorously noting that Harpviken could have bet on the market before informing Machado . The event highlighted how prediction markets can aggregate open data and speculation faster than traditional media, though concerns persist about the integrity of outcomes when insiders hold private information Washington Examiner^[4].

As investigations continue, the episode underscores the growing influence of prediction markets in forecasting high-profile events and the challenges regulators face in balancing innovation with oversight. With Polymarket and Kalshi handling billions in bets, the debate over their role in shaping public knowledge-and the risks of information leaks-shows no sign of abating.