Nisource's 456th-Ranked $0.3B Volume Amid Analyst Upgrades and $6–7 Billion Data Center Project

Market Snapshot

On October 31, 2025, Nisource (NI) closed with a 0.05% decline, trading at a volume of $0.30 billion, which ranked 456th in daily trading activity among U.S. equities. The modest volume and slight price drop contrasted with the company’s recent earnings report, which highlighted a $1.14 billion revenue beat and a $1.5 billion at-the-market equity offering program. Despite the earnings shortfall in adjusted EPS ($0.19 vs. $0.20), the stock’s performance reflected broader analyst optimism and strategic infrastructure developments.

Key Drivers

The recent analyst upgrades and strategic infrastructure projects have positioned Nisource as a focal point for growth in the utility sector. Jefferies upgraded the stock to “Buy” from “Hold,” raising its price target to $50 (an 8.7% increase), citing the company’s confirmed 3 gigawatts of data center capacity—surpassing earlier expectations of 2 gigawatts—and a favorable regulatory environment in Indiana. This upgrade followed similar bullish moves from Wells Fargo, which initiated coverage with an “Overweight” rating and a $47 target, and Barclays, which raised its target to $46 after maintaining an “Overweight” stance. Analysts emphasized Nisource’s diversified energy portfolio, including renewable assets and coal/natural gas generation, as well as its 39-year consecutive dividend payments, offering a 2.68% yield.

A pivotal catalyst for investor confidence was Nisource’s announcement of a $6–7 billion data center infrastructure project in Indiana. The initiative, supported by a 15-year fixed-rate contract with a major investment-grade customer, includes two 1,300-megawatt combined cycle gas plants and 400 megawatts of battery storage. This project aligns with the company’s strategic pivot toward regulated infrastructure, ensuring no incremental costs for existing customers while passing $1 billion in bill savings over the contract’s lifespan. The project’s structured cost-sharing and termination protections mitigate risks, enhancing its appeal to investors seeking stable, contracted returns.

Nisource’s third-quarter earnings, though mixed, underscored its financial flexibility. While adjusted EPS fell short of estimates ($0.19 vs. $0.20), revenue exceeded expectations by $100 million. The company’s $1.5 billion equity offering program through 2028, coupled with a $1.5 billion minority stake in its Generation Company (Genco) from Blackstone, further solidified its balance sheet. These moves, combined with a projected 8.4% compound annual growth rate in EPS for 2026–2030 (above the 8.5% consensus), reinforced analysts’ confidence in the company’s long-term trajectory.

The regulatory and operational landscape also played a role in the stock’s recent momentum. Nisource secured Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission (IURC) approval for its Genco model, which separates generation investments from utility operations to protect existing customers. This structure, coupled with AI-driven operational efficiency gains (20% productivity improvements in field operations), positions the company to navigate energy transition challenges while maintaining affordability. Analysts highlighted the absence of immediate regulatory risks in Indiana and the potential for additional gigawatt-scale projects, with one to three gigawatts in active negotiations.

Finally, the broader market context contributed to Nisource’s strategic appeal. With a P/E ratio of 22.38 and a 22.39% total return over the past year, the stock balanced growth and income for investors. The company’s focus on data center infrastructure, renewable energy integration, and economic development—such as 2,000+ job creation and tax revenue boosts in Indiana—aligns with macroeconomic trends favoring energy transition and infrastructure investment. As analysts reiterated, Nisource’s ability to leverage its regulated utility framework for high-growth, contracted projects differentiates it in a sector increasingly prioritizing predictability and scalability.