NIO Skyrockets 9.65%: Will the Onvo L90 SUV Launch Ignite a New Bull Run?

Summary
• NIO shares surge 9.65% to $4.945, climbing from an intraday low of $4.46.
• Onvo L90 SUV launch fuels demand, with pre-orders estimated at 30,000–35,000 units.
• NIO’s battery-as-a-service model and aggressive pricing strategy spark investor optimism.
• Analysts project 2025 deliveries to double from 2023, with a 38.7% year-over-year increase in 2024 deliveries.

After a volatile open, NIO shares surged nearly 10% on Thursday, driven by the successful launch of its Onvo L90 SUV. The stock’s sharp rebound from a $4.46 intraday low to a $4.945 high highlights investor enthusiasm for NIO’s new product line and battery-swap innovation. With a 38.7% annual delivery growth in 2024 and a 6% six-month price increase, NIO is recalibrating its value proposition in a competitive EV landscape.

Onvo L90 Launch Sparks Rally in NIO Shares
NIO’s 9.65% intraday surge was catalyzed by the official launch of its Onvo L90 SUV, a family-oriented model priced at $36,940 with a battery-as-a-service option. The L90’s aggressive pricing—$125/month for battery rentals—positions it as a direct competitor to Li Auto’s i8, while its 600-mile CLTC range and 900-volt platform address range anxiety. Analysts estimate pre-orders at 30,000–35,000 units, with CEO William Li signaling a target of 7,000 monthly deliveries. The model’s profitability potential and role in NIO’s Q4 2025 quarterly profit goal further stoked investor optimism, driving the stock’s sharp rebound from a $4.46 low.

EV Sector Volatility as NIO Outpaces Tesla’s Decline
While NIO surged, Tesla (TSLA) fell 2.48%, reflecting divergent investor sentiment in the EV sector. NIO’s rally contrasts with Tesla’s recent struggles, as the latter grapples with production bottlenecks and regulatory scrutiny. NIO’s battery-swap technology and family-focused product strategy differentiate it in a market where Rivian and Li Auto also face profitability challenges. The sector’s mixed performance underscores NIO’s unique value proposition: scalable battery infrastructure and aggressive pricing in China’s 2% NEV market share.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on NIO’s Bullish Momentum
• 200-day SMA: $4.31 (above current price); RSI: 67.83 (neutral); MACD: 0.30 (bullish); Bollinger Bands: $4.23 (middle), $5.35 (upper).
• Key levels: $4.38 (200D support), $5.00 (psychological resistance).
• NIO’s 9.65% intraday move aligns with a short-term bullish bias, supported by its 52W high of $7.71 and 52W low of $3.02. The stock’s 6% six-month gain and 12% YTD rise suggest a breakout phase, though the dynamic P/E of -2.92 indicates caution around profitability.

Top Options:
• NIO20250815C5:
• Strike: $5.00; Expiration: Aug 15; IV: 74.79%; Leverage: 16.56%; Delta: 0.52; Theta: -0.0159; Gamma: 0.5121; Turnover: $152,570.
• High leverage (16.56%) amplifies returns if NIO closes above $5.00 by Aug 15. IV at 74.79% suggests market anticipation of volatility, while gamma of 0.5121 ensures sensitivity to price swings. A 5% upside to $5.19 would yield a $0.19 payoff per share, a 38% gain on the $0.50 premium.
• NIO20250829C5:
• Strike: $5.00; Expiration: Aug 29; IV: 75.12%; Leverage: 11.83%; Delta: 0.54; Theta: -0.0104; Gamma: 0.3711; Turnover: $114,748.
• Slightly lower leverage (11.83%) but higher IV (75.12%) and theta (-0.0104) indicate time decay is manageable for a 2-week horizon. Gamma of 0.3711 ensures responsiveness to NIO’s upward momentum. A 5% move to $5.19 would yield a $0.19 payoff, a 38% return on the $0.50 premium.

Action Insight: Aggressive bulls may consider NIO20250815C5 for a short-term breakout play, while NIO20250829C5 offers a slightly longer window to capitalize on the L90’s delivery ramp.

Backtest NIO Stock Performance
After a 10% intraday surge, NIO's stock exhibited mixed short-to-medium-term performance. While the 3-day win rate was 47.18%, the 10-day win rate was slightly higher at 48.72%, indicating a greater probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of such a significant increase. However, the 30-day win rate dropped to 44.79%, suggesting that long-term gains were less consistent. The maximum return observed was 1.88% over 54 days, which was the maximum return day in the backtest period.

NIO’s Bull Run: Time to Ride the L90 Wave or Watch the 52W Low?
NIO’s 9.65% rally underscores the market’s bullish conviction in its Onvo L90 launch and battery-as-a-service model. With 3,430 battery swap stations in China and a 38.7% annual delivery growth in 2024, the stock’s momentum appears sustainable if the L90 meets its 7,000-unit monthly target. Key levels to watch include $4.38 (200D support) and $5.00 (psychological resistance). Meanwhile, Tesla’s -2.48% decline highlights sector divergence, as NIO’s family-focused strategy gains traction. Investors should monitor NIO’s Aug 15 options expiration for near-term volatility clues and consider the 52W low of $3.02 as a critical stop-loss threshold. Takeaway: Ride the L90 wave with NIO20250815C5 or NIO20250829C5, but cap risk with a $4.30 stop.