Nillion/Tether Market Overview (2025-11-03)

• Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) traded in a tightening range overnight before a sharp drop into the early hours of 2025-11-03.
• Momentum weakened toward the close with RSI entering oversold territory and volume spiking during the selloff.
• Bollinger Bands have contracted near 0.2050–0.2060, indicating low volatility before a potential breakout.
• Price tested the 0.2038 level twice, once intraday and once at the open, showing mixed buying interest.
• Turnover surged past $600k after 03:00 ET, correlating with the largest price drop of the session.

Price Summary and Context

Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) opened the 24-hour window at 0.2226 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.2297, and closed the session at 0.2049 on 2025-11-03 at 12:00 ET. The total volume for the session was 11,738,694.3 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $2,415,977. The pair experienced a significant selloff starting after 03:00 ET, coinciding with increased volume and a bearish divergence in the RSI.

Structure & Formations

The chart shows a bearish breakdown from a short-term consolidation range, with key support levels forming around 0.2050 and 0.2038. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 03:00 ET, confirming the shift in sentiment. The 0.2038 level appears to be a critical psychological and Fibonacci retracement level (38.2%), which has been tested twice, most recently at the open of the session. A bearish doji formed around 04:45 ET, signaling indecision and potential for further downside.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have both been in downward pressure for most of the session, with the 20-period MA currently below the 50-period MA, indicating bearish momentum. On a daily basis, the 50-period MA remains above the 200-period MA, suggesting a longer-term bullish trend is still intact, though short-term bearish pressure is dominant.

Momentum and Volatility Indicators

The RSI has been in oversold territory since the 04:00 ET candle, which may suggest a potential bounce or consolidation in the near term. However, the bearish divergence between price and RSI during the early selloff raises concerns about further downside. The MACD has been negative for most of the session, with a bearish crossover occurring around 03:15 ET. Bollinger Bands have been in a state of contraction from 02:00 to 04:00 ET, suggesting a period of low volatility that may precede a breakout or breakdown.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked significantly after 03:00 ET, coinciding with the largest downward move of the session. The total turnover during that hour exceeded $1 million, representing over 40% of the day’s total. A divergence between price and volume in the morning hours suggests a lack of conviction in the downward move. Turnover has remained elevated near the 0.2038 and 0.2050 levels, indicating accumulation and potential support formation in that range.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.2297 to 0.2049, the 0.2038 level aligns with the 38.2% retracement level. This suggests that buyers have shown interest at this level, but have not yet pushed the price higher. On a daily chart, the 0.2050 area represents a 61.8% retracement from the prior high, indicating a potential turning point if the price finds support there.

Backtest Hypothesis

The price action observed around the 0.2038 level highlights the potential for using this as a trigger point in a backtesting strategy. Given the repeated tests of this level and the bearish divergence in RSI, one could consider setting up a short bias once the price breaks below this level with confirmation from volume. A long-term backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-03 could be conducted to assess the profitability of such a trigger, particularly when combined with momentum and Fibonacci levels. The strategy would aim to capture short-term bearish moves while filtering out false signals using Bollinger Band contractions as entry filters.