Nillion/Tether Market Overview (2025-09-18)

• Price rose 1.89% over 24 hours, forming a bullish pattern near $0.3260.
• Volatility increased after 18:00 ET, with a high of $0.3294 and closing near session highs.
• RSI showed overbought levels briefly, but volume confirmed strength in upward moves.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during late ET hours, indicating heightened market activity.

Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) opened at $0.3119 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.3240 on 2025-09-18 at the same time. The 24-hour high was $0.3294 and the low was $0.3110. Total trading volume reached 2,423,514.3, with a notional turnover of $773,532.90. The pair exhibited a bullish bias supported by rising volume and strong price consolidation near key resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

The price action revealed a strong bullish bias as Nillion/Tether moved above the $0.3200 psychological level. A bullish flag pattern was visible during the early ET hours, with consolidation following a sharp rally from $0.3140. Key support levels were identified at $0.3110 and $0.3135, while resistance emerged at $0.3250 and $0.3275. A notable bullish engulfing pattern was observed around $0.3250, suggesting continued upward momentum. The price tested the upper Bollinger Band in the late session, signaling high volatility and strong buying pressure.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price stayed above both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating short-term bullish momentum. The 20-period line was at $0.3242, while the 50-period was at $0.3236 as of 12:00 ET. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average supported the price near $0.3215, while the 100-period was at $0.3200 and the 200-period at $0.3185. The asset remained above the critical 200-day MA, suggesting a longer-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line during the session, forming a bullish crossover. The histogram expanded after the 18:00 ET window, showing increasing bullish momentum. The RSI climbed to 62 at the session’s peak but pulled back to 58 by 12:00 ET, indicating strong relative momentum without yet reaching overbought territory. While not overbought yet, the RSI trajectory suggested the potential for a correction after the rally.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened during the late ET hours, reflecting heightened volatility. The price remained above the midline of the bands, which indicated that bullish momentum was maintaining control. A strong bounce off the lower band occurred at $0.3140, followed by a sharp move toward the upper band. The expansion in band width suggested that traders should expect increased price swings and potential breakouts in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume peaked in the 18:00–20:00 ET window, with over 300,000 units traded during the 19:15–19:30 ET period. Notional turnover spiked to $98,000 in the same timeframe. Price and volume aligned well, confirming the bullish trend. The final 15-minute candle saw a drop in volume, suggesting a possible near-term pause, but the overall volume profile was consistent with continued upward movement.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels highlighted key psychological and technical levels. The 61.8% retracement of the prior downswing was at $0.3250, which the price tested and held above. The 78.6% level was near $0.3275, a potential near-term target. On the daily chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracements aligned with the 200-day and 50-day MAs, respectively, indicating strong structural support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy involves a momentum-based approach using the 20/50 EMA crossover on the 15-minute chart. When the 20-period EMA crosses above the 50-period EMA and the RSI is above 50, a long position is initiated. A stop loss is placed below the most recent swing low, and a target is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Given the recent EMA and RSI alignment, the strategy would have triggered a long entry near $0.3230 with a target at $0.3275. This aligns with the observed price structure and momentum, offering a high-probability setup for continued upward movement in the next 24 hours.