NIL - -43.24% in 24 Hours Amid Sharp Decline in On-Chain Activity and Investor Sentiment

On SEP 3 2025, NIL dropped by 43.24% within 24 hours to reach $0.2751, NIL dropped by 842.37% within 7 days, dropped by 646.23% within 1 month, and dropped by 3667.5% within 1 year.

The sharp price drop follows a period of declining investor engagement and weak on-chain metrics. On-chain activity, including wallet activity and transaction frequency, has shown sustained erosion, signaling a broader loss of confidence in the token’s utility and adoption. Large holders have been observed moving assets to exchange wallets, which is often interpreted as a bearish signal in the crypto market. Analysts have noted that this movement could indicate preparation for further selling pressure, though no direct trades or market impact have been confirmed from these activities.

Technical indicators have also shifted to bearish territory. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages have diverged significantly, with the shorter-term average falling well below the longer-term trend, forming a classic bearish crossover pattern. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved into oversold territory, typically a precursor to potential rebounds; however, the prolonged nature of the decline suggests that the market may not respond in a traditional manner. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) line has also turned negative, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

Backtest Hypothesis

In light of the deteriorating technical and on-chain fundamentals, a backtesting strategy has been proposed to evaluate potential market responses under similar historical conditions. The hypothesis centers on a mean-reversion model that triggers buy signals when the RSI enters the oversold zone (<30) and the price closes above the 50-day moving average. Stop-loss and take-profit levels are set at -5% and +10%, respectively, to manage risk while allowing for potential short-term rebounds. The strategy is designed to be applied over a 30-day rolling window, with performance metrics evaluated against a control portfolio that remains in cash.
If the current market mirrors historical bearish cycles, the backtest would help determine whether such a strategy could effectively capture short-term reversals while avoiding deeper losses. Given the current environment, the model suggests a low-probability scenario of a strong recovery without a material shift in on-chain or sentiment metrics.