Turnaround estratégico de Nike: ¿puede la estrategia 'ganar ahora' superar las contracorrientes a corto plazo?

Nike's "Win Now" strategy, launched to reinvigorate the brand and stabilize its financial trajectory, has become a focal point for investors assessing the company's short-to-mid-term viability. Amid macroeconomic headwinds, inventory challenges, and competitive pressures, the question remains: can this strategy deliver sustainable growth?

The "Win Now" Strategy: A Focused Rebuild

Nike's "Win Now" initiative, as outlined by CEO Elliott Hill, prioritizes five core categories-running, basketball, football, training, and sportswear-while targeting key markets like the U.S., China, and the U.K. The strategy emphasizes inventory rightsizing, particularly for oversaturated models such as Air Force 1 and Jordan 1, and the introduction of innovative products like the Vomero 5 and Shox lines according to industry analysis. Leadership changes, including the appointment of as COO, aim to integrate technology into operations and product development. Additionally, Nike has reduced promotional activity, with North America's digital channel eliminating 30+ promotional days in early 2025.

However, progress has been uneven. Q3 2025 results revealed a 9% revenue decline, driven by challenges in Greater China, inventory overhangs, and promotional pressures. While the company expects inventory normalization by mid-2026, Q4 2025 results showed , with both direct-to-consumer (DTC) and wholesale segments declining. Gross margin contracted sharply , reflecting higher discounts and channel mix shifts.

Macroeconomic and Operational Pressures

Nike's challenges extend beyond its internal strategy. Tariff costs on imports , . These tariffs, combined with elevated product costs, have compressed gross margins, .

Consumer spending trends further complicate the outlook. In North America, Nike Direct sales declined , prompting a strategic shift back to wholesale despite a 9% decline in that segment. In Asia, while Greater China exceeded Q4 revenue expectations , soft demand and macroeconomic uncertainty persist. Nike's pivot to DTC and digital engagement in the region aims to regain momentum but faces stiff competition from brands like Lululemon and Adidas, which reported strong Q1 2025 growth.

Analyst Sentiment and Market Outlook

Analyst opinions on Nike's "Win Now" strategy are mixed. Goldman Sachs reiterated a "Buy" rating , citing innovation in performance categories as a key driver. However, UBS and Raymond James maintained "Neutral" ratings, highlighting ongoing revenue declines and margin pressures. Stifel, while acknowledging Nike's market share potential, maintained a "Hold" due to risks of rebuilding fundamentals.

Market sentiment reflects this duality. Investor forums show a positive score , but the stock has underperformed, . , , suggests potential overvaluation. Yet, .

Investment Viability: Balancing Risks and Rewards

For short-to-mid-term investors, Nike's path to recovery hinges on three factors:
1. Inventory and Margin Normalization, margin pressures from tariffs and promotions may ease, supporting healthier revenue growth.
2. Execution in Key Markets: , albeit from a challenging base.
3. Strategic Discipline: Nike's shift away from classic franchises to innovation-such as the Paris Olympics-focused product lines-could reinvigorate brand appeal but risks short-term sales drag.

While near-term volatility is likely, , followed by gradual improvement as the "Win Now" strategy matures. For investors with a 12–18-month horizon, Nike's strong brand equity, resilient DTC segments in EMEA and North America, and a history of dividend growth may justify cautious optimism.

Conclusion

Nike's "Win Now" strategy is a necessary but challenging pivot. While macroeconomic pressures and operational headwinds persist, the company's focus on innovation, inventory discipline, and key markets positions it for a potential rebound. Investors must weigh near-term risks against long-term fundamentals, recognizing that patience may be required to see the strategy fully materialize.